TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084239
Played Sep 6Finished
Eduard Populovskyi
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118119––––
Maksym Stetsenko
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Populovskyi above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 73.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Populovskyi 8–0 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-0 in 8
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Populovskyi 1417 vs Stetsenko 1345
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Populovskyi 60% vs Stetsenko 20%
Populovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Populovskyi 50% vs Stetsenko 30%
Populovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Populovskyi -2 · Stetsenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Populovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPopulovskyi 1.30 / Stetsenko 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Populovskyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084239
Populovskyi1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 104 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it85% 78 of 92
Stetsenko3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 98 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back24% 30 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePopulovskyi8wins
AwayStetsenko0wins
3 of 8 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 8–0, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePopulovskyi100%8 of 8
AwayStetsenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Populovskyi8Stetsenko0n = 8Populovskyi took 8 of 8
S2Populovskyi4Stetsenko4n = 8split evenly
S3Populovskyi6Stetsenko2n = 8Populovskyi took 6 of 8
S4Populovskyi3Stetsenko1n = 4Populovskyi took 3 of 4
S5Populovskyi3Stetsenko0n = 3Populovskyi took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricPopulovskyiStetsenkoP − SBasisWins80+8in 8 meetingsFirst set80+8of 8Avg pointsper match40.929.4+11.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPopulovskyiStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime340 / 696 vs 436 / 83648.9%52.2%340 / 696 vs 436 / 836Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiPopulovskyi 1.30/Stetsenko 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 27 · 07:20E. Populovskyi—119711113M. Stetsenko—71111742
WAug 24 · 07:20E. Populovskyi—1111113M. Stetsenko—5970
WAug 7 · 06:00E. Populovskyi—111111113M. Stetsenko—813531
WAug 6 · 12:50E. Populovskyi—1113113M. Stetsenko—81160
WJul 31 · 04:30E. Populovskyi—119119113M. Stetsenko—41161152
WJul 12 · 12:30E. Populovskyi—1111113M. Stetsenko—5780
WJul 9 · 06:20E. Populovskyi—119711113M. Stetsenko—91111792
WJun 22 · 09:50E. Populovskyi—1111113M. Stetsenko—5830
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133WSep 3 · 11:00D. Khairov1.734111031E. Populovskyi2.0011612113
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113LSep 6 · 11:20S. Solomko1.251211113M. Stetsenko3.7510670LSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113LSep 4 · 11:05M. Stetsenko2.6368120K. Klymenko1.441111143LSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113LSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 06:35M. Stetsenko1.4411714113O. Mytsyk2.636111241LSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
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