TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072926
Played Sep 4Finished
Maksym Stetsenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1111181113711––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched — 65.8% is still 65.8%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
65.8%
65.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Stetsenko above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 65.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Stetsenko 4–18 Anatolii Kovalenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 4 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-18 in 22
Kovalenko
Correct
gap of 14 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stetsenko 1373 vs Kovalenko 1388
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stetsenko 40% vs Kovalenko 60%
Kovalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stetsenko 50% vs Kovalenko 30%
Stetsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stetsenko +1 · Kovalenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kovalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStetsenko 2.63 / Kovalenko 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Kovalenko)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13072926
Stetsenko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 98 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62
Kovalenko1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 71 of 140
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it66% 46 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStetsenko2wins
AwayKovalenko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStetsenko25%1 of 4
AwayKovalenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stetsenko4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S2Stetsenko6Kovalenko4n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S3Stetsenko4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Stetsenko2Kovalenko8n = 10Kovalenko took 8 of 10
S5Stetsenko1Kovalenko3n = 4Kovalenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStetsenkoKovalenkoS − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.541.0−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStetsenkoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime437 / 834 vs 268 / 50352.4%53.3%437 / 834 vs 268 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoStetsenko 2.63/Kovalenko 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 07:20M. Stetsenko—81111113A. Kovalenko—116171
LAug 7 · 10:30M. Stetsenko—81111762A. Kovalenko—119811113
LAug 6 · 06:20M. Stetsenko—31131382A. Kovalenko—1171111113
LJul 31 · 10:00M. Stetsenko—8111171A. Kovalenko—11513113
LJul 26 · 17:30M. Stetsenko—115961A. Kovalenko—91111113
LJul 23 · 09:20M. Stetsenko—114551A. Kovalenko—21111113
LJul 20 · 07:50M. Stetsenko—891171A. Kovalenko—11114113
WJul 13 · 12:20M. Stetsenko—111198113A. Kovalenko—73111192
LJul 6 · 12:20M. Stetsenko—1181071A. Kovalenko—81112113
LJul 2 · 05:50M. Stetsenko—5111112102A. Kovalenko—114614123
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113LSep 6 · 11:20S. Solomko1.251211113M. Stetsenko3.7510670LSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113LSep 4 · 11:05M. Stetsenko2.6368120K. Klymenko1.441111143LSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113WSep 4 · 06:35M. Stetsenko1.4411714113O. Mytsyk2.636111241LSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:05K. Klymenko1.73881111113A. Kovalenko2.0011118722WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123LSep 3 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.251111913113A. Kovalenko1.57136111192
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