TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072970
Played Sep 4Finished
Volodymyr Melnykov
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611611––––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 49 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 17–35 Eduard Populovskyi Volodymyr Melnykov has won 17 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-35 in 52
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 18 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1355 vs Populovskyi 1431
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 40% vs Populovskyi 80%
Populovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 50% vs Populovskyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov +1 · Populovskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 1.91 / Populovskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Populovskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13072970
Melnykov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 61 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back15% 9 of 60
Populovskyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 100 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it95% 53 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it84% 75 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnykov6wins
AwayPopulovskyi4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnykov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykov75%6 of 8
AwayPopulovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnykov8Populovskyi2n = 10Melnykov took 8 of 10
S2Melnykov4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S3Melnykov8Populovskyi2n = 10Melnykov took 8 of 10
S4Melnykov3Populovskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnykovPopulovskyiM − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.732.5+4.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 540 vs 343 / 69845.6%49.1%246 / 540 vs 343 / 698Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiMelnykov 1.91/Populovskyi 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 08:50V. Melnykov—11118133E. Populovskyi—8411111
LAug 23 · 05:50V. Melnykov—11880E. Populovskyi—1311113
WAug 22 · 15:30V. Melnykov—1112113E. Populovskyi—51080
LAug 16 · 11:50V. Melnykov—111011852E. Populovskyi—812511113
WAug 15 · 17:30V. Melnykov—111211113E. Populovskyi—814581
WAug 10 · 11:20V. Melnykov—1111113E. Populovskyi—9890
WAug 7 · 11:30V. Melnykov—11711113E. Populovskyi—311691
WJul 31 · 09:00V. Melnykov—1111113E. Populovskyi—3680
LMay 31 · 20:20V. Melnykov—7101121E. Populovskyi—11124113
LMay 23 · 16:20V. Melnykov—11811432E. Populovskyi—311511113
V. Melnykov10
LSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102WSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113LSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113WSep 4 · 07:35K. Klymenko3.2581311472V. Melnykov1.331111811113LSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123LAug 27 · 11:30O. Ovsiienko1.731111113V. Melnykov2.006990LAug 27 · 10:00V. Melnykov1.911011311102V. Kondratenko1.80128119123WAug 27 · 08:00O. Mytsyk1.61118121342V. Melnykov2.208111015113WAug 27 · 06:00V. Mukhin3.50761151V. Melnykov1.2811116113WAug 27 · 05:00K. Klymenko3.2581120V. Melnykov1.331111143
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133WSep 3 · 11:00D. Khairov1.734111031E. Populovskyi2.0011612113
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