TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061315
Played Sep 2Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181113711115117
Ihor Emets
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIhor Emets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Ihor Emets below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ihor Emets at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 10–9 Ihor Emets Ihor Emets has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:25What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Emets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1573 vs Emets 1506
Kotiash
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 80% vs Emets 60%
Kotiash
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 50% vs Emets 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash +4 · Emets +2
Kotiash
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotiash) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 1.83 / Emets 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kotiash)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13061315
Kotiash1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Emets1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotiash4wins
AwayEmets6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderEmets leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiash80%4 of 5
AwayEmets100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash5Emets5n = 10split evenly
S2Kotiash6Emets4n = 10Kotiash took 6 of 10
S3Kotiash3Emets7n = 10Emets took 7 of 10
S4Kotiash5Emets3n = 8Kotiash took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotiashEmetsK − EBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.138.5−1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashEmetsBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 454 vs 255 / 50148%50.9%218 / 454 vs 255 / 501Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotiashKotiash 1.83/Emets 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kotiash · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 9 · 07:00A. Kotiash—11117113I. Emets—891171
LMay 4 · 07:35A. Kotiash—41141182I. Emets—119116113
LApr 16 · 10:30A. Kotiash—118821I. Emets—91111113
LMar 30 · 07:35A. Kotiash—7660I. Emets—1111113
LMar 18 · 08:35A. Kotiash—1118771I. Emets—131611113
WMar 13 · 12:05A. Kotiash—11911113I. Emets—511871
LFeb 27 · 10:05A. Kotiash—1011951I. Emets—12911113
LSep 4 · 10:30A. Kotiash—9111011112I. Emets—118125133
WAug 15 · 08:30A. Kotiash—11711113I. Emets—511971
WMay 8 · 06:00A. Kotiash—1111113I. Emets—7770
A. Kotiash10
LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.10631211153A. Troyan1.671111107132WSep 2 · 09:00A. Kotiash1.801111113V. Kolesnykov1.913990
I. Emets10
WSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.53117651I. Emets2.3851111113WSep 3 · 09:30I. Emets1.53111111113A. Kurtenko2.38133561WSep 3 · 08:30I. Emets1.7341111113E. Populovskyi2.00114581LSep 3 · 07:00I. Emets1.6710750D. Khairov2.101211113LSep 3 · 05:00I. Emets1.501178101S. Solomko2.5051111123WSep 2 · 09:30I. Emets1.441111113A. Troyan2.636860WSep 2 · 08:30I. Emets1.831211113D. Khairov1.8310380LSep 2 · 07:00I. Emets1.9167121182V. Kolesnykov1.801111104113LSep 2 · 05:00I. Emets2.003990O. Volynets1.731111113WAug 31 · 10:30O. Volynets1.571411611112I. Emets2.251261113133
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