TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072910
Played Sep 4Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811811411––
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:30 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotiash to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 73 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Andrii Kotiash at 60.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 6–3 Yaroslav Kovshun Yaroslav Kovshun has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:30What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kotiash
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Kotiash
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1552 vs Kovshun 1509
Kotiash
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 100% vs Kovshun 40%
Kotiash
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 60% vs Kovshun 30%
Kotiash
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash +5 · Kovshun +1
Kotiash
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kotiash)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 1.57 / Kovshun 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kotiash)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13072910
Kotiash1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 51 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it87% 34 of 39
Kovshun2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 44 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKotiash6wins
AwayKovshun3wins
5 of 9 to a deciderKotiash leads 6–3, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiash71.4%5 of 7
AwayKovshunn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash7Kovshun2n = 9Kotiash took 7 of 9
S2Kotiash4Kovshun5n = 9Kovshun took 5 of 9
S3Kotiash2Kovshun7n = 9Kovshun took 7 of 9
S4Kotiash4Kovshun2n = 6Kotiash took 4 of 6
S5Kotiash4Kovshun1n = 5Kotiash took 4 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKotiashKovshunKotiash − KovshunBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match38.837.2+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 464 vs 342 / 64248.1%53.3%223 / 464 vs 342 / 642Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotiashKotiash 1.57/Kovshun 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Kotiash · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash—117711113Y. Kovshun—91111972
LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash—118841Y. Kovshun—91111113
WAug 29 · 09:05A. Kotiash—1111113Y. Kovshun—4530
WAug 28 · 06:00A. Kotiash—1111123Y. Kovshun—68100
LJul 18 · 05:35A. Kotiash—10740Y. Kovshun—1211113
WJul 17 · 11:00A. Kotiash—511911113Y. Kovshun—11811962
WJul 11 · 09:05A. Kotiash—118811113Y. Kovshun—71111642
WJul 9 · 08:00A. Kotiash—111175113Y. Kovshun—49111182
LMay 17 · 11:50A. Kotiash—11851172Y. Kovshun—911117113
A. Kotiash10
LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113WSep 4 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.10631211153A. Troyan1.671111107132WSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572WSep 2 · 09:00A. Kotiash1.801111113V. Kolesnykov1.913990
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Kovshun3.00891111133R. Sopivnyk1.36111188112LAug 29 · 11:35A. Troyan3.00118611113Y. Kovshun1.3661111862
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