TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072898
Played Sep 4Finished
Yaroslav Kovshun
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511117811116811
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 21–13 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 13 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovshun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-13 in 34
Kovshun
Wrong
gap of 8 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1550 vs Karpenko 1612
Karpenko
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 60% vs Karpenko 40%
Kovshun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 50% vs Karpenko 20%
Kovshun
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun -1 · Karpenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karpenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 1.80 / Karpenko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Karpenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13072898
Kovshun1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 85 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 62 of 80
Karpenko1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 85 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back21% 13 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun5wins
AwayKarpenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun75%3 of 4
AwayKarpenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovshun5Karpenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovshun5Karpenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovshun4Karpenko4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunKarpenkoKovshun − KarpenkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.637.7+0.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime341 / 636 vs 354 / 67953.6%52.1%341 / 636 vs 354 / 679Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpenkoKovshun 1.80/Karpenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Karpenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 24 · 07:05Y. Kovshun—12811113O. Karpenko—1011751
LJul 9 · 06:00Y. Kovshun—8960O. Karpenko—1111113
WJul 3 · 06:35Y. Kovshun—91112113O. Karpenko—1131071
WJun 30 · 10:40Y. Kovshun—117116113O. Karpenko—21161192
LJun 26 · 09:05Y. Kovshun—1111791O. Karpenko—13311113
WMay 28 · 07:35Y. Kovshun—41111113O. Karpenko—116891
WMay 22 · 05:05Y. Kovshun—11118113O. Karpenko—951151
LMay 18 · 10:35Y. Kovshun—871751O. Karpenko—111115113
LMay 14 · 08:30Y. Kovshun—11119872O. Karpenko—791111113
LMay 4 · 08:30Y. Kovshun—610170O. Karpenko—1112193
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Kovshun3.00891111133R. Sopivnyk1.36111188112LAug 29 · 11:35A. Troyan3.00118611113Y. Kovshun1.3661111862
O. Karpenko10
LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113LSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
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