TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072969
Played Sep 4Finished
Yurii Volkov
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111210112811711
Oleh Karpenko
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeYurii Volkov to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Volkov above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Yurii Volkov at 71.2%
92 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Volkov 40–18 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 18 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Volkov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-18 in 58
Volkov
Wrong
gap of 22 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volkov 1685 vs Karpenko 1614
Volkov
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volkov 60% vs Karpenko 0%
Volkov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volkov 40% vs Karpenko 20%
Volkov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volkov +3 · Karpenko -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Volkov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolkov 1.36 / Karpenko 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Volkov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13072969
Volkov1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 158 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it96% 81 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it85% 117 of 137
Karpenko3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 85 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back21% 13 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVolkov8wins
AwayKarpenko2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVolkov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolkov85.7%6 of 7
AwayKarpenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volkov7Karpenko3n = 10Volkov took 7 of 10
S2Volkov5Karpenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Volkov7Karpenko3n = 10Volkov took 7 of 10
S4Volkov7Karpenko0n = 7Volkov took 7 of 7
S5Volkov2Karpenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVolkovKarpenkoV − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.535.1+7.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolkovKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 776 vs 352 / 67553.7%52.2%417 / 776 vs 352 / 675Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolkovVolkov 1.36/Karpenko 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.2%
Volkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 06:00Y. Volkov—1111113O. Karpenko—8670
WAug 4 · 12:05Y. Volkov—1111113O. Karpenko—9550
LJul 27 · 12:05Y. Volkov—11971492O. Karpenko—4111112113
WJul 24 · 08:05Y. Volkov—1181411113O. Karpenko—81116942
WJul 21 · 10:35Y. Volkov—1111133O. Karpenko—95110
WJul 20 · 08:05Y. Volkov—81111133O. Karpenko—1185111
WJul 13 · 10:35Y. Volkov—118811113O. Karpenko—61111732
WJul 9 · 04:30Y. Volkov—11711113O. Karpenko—811881
LJul 7 · 17:10Y. Volkov—1051111102O. Karpenko—121158123
WJul 3 · 05:35Y. Volkov—71111113O. Karpenko—116791
Y. Volkov10
LSep 5 · 11:19I. Efimenko1.8511116113Y. Volkov1.85881191WSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123WSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:18Y. Volkov1.67811751I. Efimenko2.1011611113WSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912LSep 4 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.2011381192R. Sopivnyk1.61611114113LSep 4 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.6112811752A. Troyan2.201011811113WAug 29 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.671111113A. Troyan2.108780
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113LSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
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