TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060726
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleh Karpenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210311611611––
Yurii Bondarenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Karpenko above · Yurii Bondarenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Yurii Bondarenko at 59.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Karpenko 4–4 Yurii Bondarenko Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpenko 1614 vs Bondarenko 1632
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpenko 0% vs Bondarenko 40%
Bondarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpenko 30% vs Bondarenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpenko -5 · Bondarenko +2
Karpenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Bondarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpenko 2.63 / Bondarenko 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Bondarenko)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13060726
Karpenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 85 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back31% 28 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back22% 13 of 59
Bondarenko1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 14 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKarpenko4wins
AwayBondarenko4wins
1 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpenko75%3 of 4
AwayBondarenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpenko4Bondarenko4n = 8split evenly
S2Karpenko2Bondarenko6n = 8Bondarenko took 6 of 8
S3Karpenko2Bondarenko6n = 8Bondarenko took 6 of 8
S4Karpenko4Bondarenko1n = 5Karpenko took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricKarpenkoBondarenkoK − BBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match33.536.6−3.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpenkoBondarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 675 vs 50 / 9452.2%53.2%352 / 675 vs 50 / 94Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoKarpenko 2.63/Bondarenko 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko—123661Y. Bondarenko—101111113
LAug 18 · 07:30O. Karpenko—10580Y. Bondarenko—1211113
WJul 23 · 10:35O. Karpenko—119812123Y. Bondarenko—8111110102
WJul 14 · 09:05O. Karpenko—11139113Y. Bondarenko—8111131
WJul 7 · 06:20O. Karpenko—11911113Y. Bondarenko—611891
WJun 26 · 09:05O. Karpenko—61111113Y. Bondarenko—116881
LJun 24 · 09:05O. Karpenko—8290Y. Bondarenko—1111113
LMay 29 · 05:35O. Karpenko—6880Y. Bondarenko—1111113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113LSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172WAug 26 · 14:10O. Varlamov2.50117961Y. Bondarenko1.5061111113LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113WAug 26 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.837790Y. Bondarenko1.831111113LAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.2010101181Y. Holoborodko1.6112128113LAug 23 · 10:30O. Varlamov2.0051111113Y. Bondarenko1.73118451
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