TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12477812
Played Aug 23Finished
Oleg Varlamov
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511118114115––
Yurii Bondarenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
511118114115––
H2H Oleg Varlamov 1–3 Yurii Bondarenko Oleg Varlamov has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:24What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bondarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Bondarenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varlamov 1610 vs Bondarenko 1601
Varlamov
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varlamov 80% vs Bondarenko 40%
Varlamov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varlamov 80% vs Bondarenko 30%
Varlamov
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varlamov -1 · Bondarenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bondarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarlamov 2.00 / Bondarenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bondarenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12477812
Varlamov2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 72 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back31% 24 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 41
Bondarenko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 11 of 19
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVarlamov1wins
AwayBondarenko3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderBondarenko leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varlamov2Bondarenko2n = 4split evenly
S2Varlamov1Bondarenko3n = 4Bondarenko took 3 of 4
S3Varlamov4Bondarenko0n = 4Varlamov took 4 of 4
S4Varlamov1Bondarenko3n = 4Bondarenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricVarlamovBondarenkoV − BBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match39.240.0−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarlamovBondarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 554 vs 49 / 8948.4%55.1%268 / 554 vs 49 / 89Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoVarlamov 2.00/Bondarenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Varlamov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 12 · 07:00O. Varlamov—11111782Y. Bondarenko—113411113
WJul 5 · 07:00O. Varlamov—11411113Y. Bondarenko—611661
LFeb 1 · 08:30O. Varlamov—11311972Y. Bondarenko—911711113
LOct 5 · 05:00O. Varlamov—101011101Y. Bondarenko—12126123
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172WAug 26 · 14:10O. Varlamov2.50117961Y. Bondarenko1.5061111113LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113WAug 26 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.837790Y. Bondarenko1.831111113LAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.2010101181Y. Holoborodko1.6112128113
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