TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079279
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleg Varlamov
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 2
Set by set
511101299––––
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingOleg Varlamov above · Oleksandr Zhyrnov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-9
Point 56 set 3, 9-9 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Varlamov 34–28 Oleksandr Zhyrnov Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 28 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zhyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-28 in 62
Varlamov
Wrong
gap of 6 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varlamov 1585 vs Zhyrnov 1721
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varlamov 60% vs Zhyrnov 80%
Zhyrnov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varlamov 50% vs Zhyrnov 80%
Zhyrnov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varlamov -1 · Zhyrnov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zhyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhyrnov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarlamov 1.83 / Zhyrnov 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079279
Varlamov1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Zhyrnov1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarlamov7wins
AwayZhyrnov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarlamov70%7 of 10
AwayZhyrnovn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varlamov10Zhyrnov0n = 10Varlamov took 10 of 10
S2Varlamov5Zhyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Varlamov4Zhyrnov6n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Varlamov3Zhyrnov5n = 8Zhyrnov took 5 of 8
S5Varlamov3Zhyrnov1n = 4Varlamov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarlamovZhyrnovV − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match41.437.8+3.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarlamovZhyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 543 vs 378 / 76147.9%49.7%260 / 543 vs 378 / 761Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovVarlamov 1.83/Zhyrnov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–2
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 15:10O. Varlamov—11117492O. Zhyrnov—871111113
WAug 22 · 13:10O. Varlamov—111115123O. Zhyrnov—8617101
WAug 1 · 12:40O. Varlamov—118411143O. Zhyrnov—811114122
LJul 30 · 15:10O. Varlamov—116981O. Zhyrnov—41111113
WJul 29 · 16:40O. Varlamov—1115113O. Zhyrnov—41350
WJul 22 · 13:40O. Varlamov—1411113O. Zhyrnov—12590
WJul 16 · 13:10O. Varlamov—114136113O. Zhyrnov—411111162
WJul 14 · 15:40O. Varlamov—11511113O. Zhyrnov—711931
LJul 11 · 13:40O. Varlamov—1181081O. Zhyrnov—71112113
WJul 8 · 14:10O. Varlamov—111187113O. Zhyrnov—98111152
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LAug 29 · 17:10O. Varlamov1.8311931182O. Zhyrnov1.83611112113
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WAug 29 · 17:10O. Varlamov1.8311931182O. Zhyrnov1.83611112113
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