TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084047
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115411116113––
Ruslan Sopivnyk
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Ruslan Sopivnyk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 62 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 63.2%
62 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 15–6 Ruslan Sopivnyk Ruslan Sopivnyk has won 6 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Zhyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-6 in 21
Zhyrnov
Correct
gap of 9 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1753 vs Sopivnyk 1643
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 60% vs Sopivnyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 60% vs Sopivnyk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov -1 · Sopivnyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Zhyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sopivnyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 1.50 / Sopivnyk 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084047
Zhyrnov1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 120 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it84% 91 of 108
Sopivnyk2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 63 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov8wins
AwaySopivnyk2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZhyrnov leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov85.7%6 of 7
AwaySopivnyk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov7Sopivnyk3n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Zhyrnov5Sopivnyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Zhyrnov7Sopivnyk3n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S4Zhyrnov4Sopivnyk2n = 6Zhyrnov took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovSopivnykZ − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.233.0+5.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovSopivnykBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 765 vs 196 / 39249.8%50%381 / 765 vs 196 / 392Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovZhyrnov 1.50/Sopivnyk 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov—11411113R. Sopivnyk—511631
LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov—118961R. Sopivnyk—91111113
WAug 30 · 11:30O. Zhyrnov—1112113R. Sopivnyk—81080
WAug 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov—11611113R. Sopivnyk—611671
WJul 26 · 06:05O. Zhyrnov—911114113R. Sopivnyk—11771132
WJul 9 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov—1111173R. Sopivnyk—67150
WJun 27 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov—1116103R. Sopivnyk—61480
WJun 10 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov—115711113R. Sopivnyk—61111592
LMay 31 · 05:00O. Zhyrnov—131080R. Sopivnyk—1512113
WMay 30 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov—61111123R. Sopivnyk—1174101
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292WSep 3 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov1.801112113O. Kuzyshyn1.9181050
R. Sopivnyk10
LSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193WSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113WSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361WSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133WSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401071141R. Sopivnyk2.7512119113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870LSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972
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