TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078901
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleg Varlamov
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119113116––
Ruslan Sopivnyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeRuslan Sopivnyk to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleg Varlamov above · Ruslan Sopivnyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Ruslan Sopivnyk at 54.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Varlamov 15–11 Ruslan Sopivnyk Ruslan Sopivnyk has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:31What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sopivnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-11 in 26
Varlamov
Correct
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varlamov 1580 vs Sopivnyk 1661
Sopivnyk
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varlamov 20% vs Sopivnyk 80%
Sopivnyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varlamov 40% vs Sopivnyk 70%
Sopivnyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varlamov -1 · Sopivnyk +4
Sopivnyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Sopivnyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sopivnyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarlamov 2.00 / Sopivnyk 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Sopivnyk)+1.8pp
Setka Cup · #13078901
Varlamov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 70 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back30% 23 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Sopivnyk1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 71 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it91% 52 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it84% 59 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarlamov6wins
AwaySopivnyk4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarlamov80%4 of 5
AwaySopivnyk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varlamov5Sopivnyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Varlamov5Sopivnyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Varlamov6Sopivnyk4n = 10Varlamov took 6 of 10
S4Varlamov5Sopivnyk2n = 7Varlamov took 5 of 7
S5Varlamov2Sopivnyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarlamovSopivnykV − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.534.8+5.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarlamovSopivnykBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 548 vs 194 / 38747.8%50.1%262 / 548 vs 194 / 387Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SopivnykVarlamov 2.00/Sopivnyk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Sopivnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Varlamov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov—81111113R. Sopivnyk—119361
LAug 15 · 17:10O. Varlamov—8680R. Sopivnyk—1111113
LAug 5 · 10:40O. Varlamov—119101172R. Sopivnyk—811128113
WAug 1 · 13:40O. Varlamov—101311113R. Sopivnyk—1211351
LJul 23 · 17:10O. Varlamov—81111952R. Sopivnyk—113211113
WJul 1 · 10:40O. Varlamov—1111163R. Sopivnyk—66140
WJun 27 · 12:40O. Varlamov—116911113R. Sopivnyk—31111652
WJun 10 · 12:40O. Varlamov—1111113R. Sopivnyk—5580
WJun 3 · 12:40O. Varlamov—1121311113R. Sopivnyk—81115392
LMay 31 · 11:30O. Varlamov—1091181R. Sopivnyk—12117113
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292LAug 29 · 17:10O. Varlamov1.8311931182O. Zhyrnov1.83611112113
R. Sopivnyk10
LSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193WSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113LSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631WSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110WSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133WSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401071141R. Sopivnyk2.7512119113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870LSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972
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