TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084140
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7119111214––––
Oleg Varlamov
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Oleg Varlamov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 64 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 54.7%
64 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 29–35 Oleg Varlamov Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 29 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zhyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-35 in 64
Varlamov
Correct
gap of 6 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1753 vs Varlamov 1587
Zhyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 60% vs Varlamov 40%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 70% vs Varlamov 40%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov +2 · Varlamov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Zhyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 1.80 / Varlamov 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+3.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084140
Zhyrnov1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 120 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it84% 91 of 108
Varlamov1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 73 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov3wins
AwayVarlamov7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnovn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayVarlamov70%7 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov0Varlamov10n = 10Varlamov took 10 of 10
S2Zhyrnov5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S3Zhyrnov5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S4Zhyrnov3Varlamov4n = 7Varlamov took 4 of 7
S5Zhyrnov2Varlamov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovVarlamovZ − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match36.240.7−4.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovVarlamovBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 765 vs 263 / 55249.8%47.6%381 / 765 vs 263 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovZhyrnov 1.80/Varlamov 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Varlamov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov—79120O. Varlamov—1111143
WAug 29 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov—611112113O. Varlamov—11931182
WAug 26 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov—871111113O. Varlamov—11117492
LAug 22 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov—8617101O. Varlamov—111115123
LAug 1 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov—811114122O. Varlamov—118411143
WJul 30 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov—41111113O. Varlamov—116981
LJul 29 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov—41350O. Varlamov—1115113
LJul 22 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov—12590O. Varlamov—1411113
LJul 16 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov—411111162O. Varlamov—114136113
LJul 14 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov—711931O. Varlamov—11511113
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292WSep 3 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov1.801112113O. Kuzyshyn1.9181050
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292LAug 29 · 17:10O. Varlamov1.8311931182O. Zhyrnov1.83611112113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.