TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084409
Played Sep 6Finished
Ruslan Sopivnyk
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
31171149––––
Oleg Varlamov
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Sopivnyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRuslan Sopivnyk above · Oleg Varlamov below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-9
Point 45 set 3, 4-9 — our read held Ruslan Sopivnyk at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Sopivnyk 11–15 Oleg Varlamov Ruslan Sopivnyk has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sopivnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-15 in 26
Varlamov
Correct
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sopivnyk 1660 vs Varlamov 1569
Sopivnyk
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sopivnyk 40% vs Varlamov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sopivnyk 60% vs Varlamov 30%
Sopivnyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sopivnyk +1 · Varlamov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sopivnyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSopivnyk 1.80 / Varlamov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sopivnyk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13084409
Sopivnyk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 71 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it91% 52 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it83% 59 of 71
Varlamov1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 71 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSopivnyk4wins
AwayVarlamov6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSopivnyk60%3 of 5
AwayVarlamov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sopivnyk5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S2Sopivnyk5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S3Sopivnyk4Varlamov6n = 10Varlamov took 6 of 10
S4Sopivnyk2Varlamov5n = 7Varlamov took 5 of 7
S5Sopivnyk2Varlamov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSopivnykVarlamovS − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.840.5−5.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSopivnykVarlamovBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 391 vs 263 / 55250.1%47.6%196 / 391 vs 263 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SopivnykSopivnyk 1.80/Varlamov 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sopivnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Varlamov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 17:10R. Sopivnyk—119361O. Varlamov—81111113
WAug 15 · 17:10R. Sopivnyk—1111113O. Varlamov—8680
WAug 5 · 10:40R. Sopivnyk—811128113O. Varlamov—119101172
LAug 1 · 13:40R. Sopivnyk—1211351O. Varlamov—101311113
WJul 23 · 17:10R. Sopivnyk—113211113O. Varlamov—81111952
LJul 1 · 10:40R. Sopivnyk—66140O. Varlamov—1111163
LJun 27 · 12:40R. Sopivnyk—31111652O. Varlamov—116911113
LJun 10 · 12:40R. Sopivnyk—5580O. Varlamov—1111113
LJun 3 · 12:40R. Sopivnyk—81115392O. Varlamov—1121311113
WMay 31 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk—12117113O. Varlamov—1091181
R. Sopivnyk10
WSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113LSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631WSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361WSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133WSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401071141R. Sopivnyk2.7512119113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870LSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972
O. Varlamov10
LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292LAug 29 · 17:10O. Varlamov1.8311931182O. Zhyrnov1.83611112113
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