TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13083999
Played Sep 6Finished
Ruslan Sopivnyk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113811119114––
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Sopivnyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Sopivnyk above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 68 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Ruslan Sopivnyk at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Sopivnyk 15–24 Yevhenii Holoborodko Ruslan Sopivnyk has won 15 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:39What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Holoborodko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-24 in 39
Holoborodko
Wrong
gap of 9 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sopivnyk 1643 vs Holoborodko 1550
Sopivnyk
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sopivnyk 60% vs Holoborodko 20%
Sopivnyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sopivnyk 60% vs Holoborodko 10%
Sopivnyk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sopivnyk -2 · Holoborodko -4
Holoborodko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sopivnyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSopivnyk 1.83 / Holoborodko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sopivnyk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13083999
Sopivnyk1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Holoborodko1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSopivnyk7wins
AwayHoloborodko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSopivnyk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSopivnyk71.4%5 of 7
AwayHoloborodko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sopivnyk7Holoborodko3n = 10Sopivnyk took 7 of 10
S2Sopivnyk6Holoborodko4n = 10Sopivnyk took 6 of 10
S3Sopivnyk6Holoborodko4n = 10Sopivnyk took 6 of 10
S4Sopivnyk5Holoborodko2n = 7Sopivnyk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSopivnykHoloborodkoS − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.033.8+5.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSopivnykHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 392 vs 315 / 60650%52%196 / 392 vs 315 / 606Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SopivnykSopivnyk 1.83/Holoborodko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sopivnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sopivnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk—11811113Y. Holoborodko—311941
WSep 5 · 16:10R. Sopivnyk—1111133Y. Holoborodko—55110
WSep 1 · 16:10R. Sopivnyk—12811113Y. Holoborodko—1011991
LAug 30 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk—119121162Y. Holoborodko—811148113
WAug 28 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk—1111411113Y. Holoborodko—13411482
LAug 15 · 12:40R. Sopivnyk—119861Y. Holoborodko—51111113
WAug 14 · 06:05R. Sopivnyk—61111113Y. Holoborodko—115491
WAug 9 · 10:00R. Sopivnyk—1314113Y. Holoborodko—111280
WAug 6 · 12:40R. Sopivnyk—1111113Y. Holoborodko—5860
LAug 2 · 11:35R. Sopivnyk—911471Y. Holoborodko—11911113
R. Sopivnyk10
LSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193WSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113LSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361WSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133WSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401071141R. Sopivnyk2.7512119113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870LSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851WSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113LSep 5 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.509760LSep 3 · 17:40O. Nadporozhskyi2.1041112113Y. Holoborodko1.671171091
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