TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084098
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleg Varlamov
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181141214811211
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:01 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeOleg Varlamov to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleg Varlamov above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 92 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Oleg Varlamov at 54.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Varlamov 20–26 Yevhenii Holoborodko Oleg Varlamov has won 20 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:01What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Varlamov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-26 in 46
Holoborodko
Correct
gap of 6 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varlamov 1583 vs Holoborodko 1501
Varlamov
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varlamov 40% vs Holoborodko 0%
Varlamov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varlamov 40% vs Holoborodko 10%
Varlamov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varlamov -1 · Holoborodko -5
Holoborodko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Varlamov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarlamov 1.73 / Holoborodko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Varlamov)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084098
Varlamov1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 50 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it74% 43 of 58
Holoborodko2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 67 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back26% 31 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarlamov7wins
AwayHoloborodko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarlamov100%4 of 4
AwayHoloborodko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varlamov4Holoborodko6n = 10Holoborodko took 6 of 10
S2Varlamov6Holoborodko4n = 10Varlamov took 6 of 10
S3Varlamov7Holoborodko3n = 10Varlamov took 7 of 10
S4Varlamov6Holoborodko1n = 7Varlamov took 6 of 7
S5Varlamov2Holoborodko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarlamovHoloborodkoV − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.435.2+6.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarlamovHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 551 vs 313 / 60447.7%51.8%263 / 551 vs 313 / 604Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarlamovVarlamov 1.73/Holoborodko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Varlamov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 12:40O. Varlamov—9990Y. Holoborodko—1111113
LAug 23 · 04:30O. Varlamov—511101192Y. Holoborodko—119127113
WAug 22 · 14:10O. Varlamov—581111113Y. Holoborodko—11117642
WAug 19 · 14:10O. Varlamov—119116113Y. Holoborodko—61151192
WAug 15 · 11:40O. Varlamov—111013113Y. Holoborodko—4121161
LAug 12 · 11:40O. Varlamov—1211101292Y. Holoborodko—1481210113
WAug 8 · 17:40O. Varlamov—1111113Y. Holoborodko—7870
WAug 1 · 17:40O. Varlamov—71113113Y. Holoborodko—1141151
WJul 30 · 17:10O. Varlamov—71111113Y. Holoborodko—118331
WJul 25 · 12:40O. Varlamov—1111113Y. Holoborodko—9580
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292LAug 29 · 17:10O. Varlamov1.8311931182O. Zhyrnov1.83611112113
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851WSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113LSep 5 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.509760LSep 3 · 17:40O. Nadporozhskyi2.1041112113Y. Holoborodko1.671171091
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