TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079060
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleg Varlamov
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 1
Set by set
11911845––––
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleg Varlamov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Varlamov above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-5
Point 48 set 3, 4-5 — our read held Oleg Varlamov at 54.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Varlamov 20–26 Yevhenii Holoborodko Oleg Varlamov has won 20 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Varlamov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-26 in 46
Holoborodko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varlamov 1580 vs Holoborodko 1538
Varlamov
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varlamov 40% vs Holoborodko 20%
Varlamov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varlamov 30% vs Holoborodko 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varlamov -3 · Holoborodko +1
Varlamov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Varlamov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarlamov 1.80 / Holoborodko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Varlamov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13079060
Varlamov1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 49 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it74% 42 of 57
Holoborodko1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 66 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back26% 30 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarlamov7wins
AwayHoloborodko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarlamov100%4 of 4
AwayHoloborodko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varlamov4Holoborodko6n = 10Holoborodko took 6 of 10
S2Varlamov6Holoborodko4n = 10Varlamov took 6 of 10
S3Varlamov7Holoborodko3n = 10Varlamov took 7 of 10
S4Varlamov6Holoborodko1n = 7Varlamov took 6 of 7
S5Varlamov2Holoborodko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarlamovHoloborodkoV − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.435.2+6.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarlamovHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 548 vs 313 / 60147.8%52.1%262 / 548 vs 313 / 601Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarlamovVarlamov 1.80/Holoborodko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Varlamov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–1
Varlamov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 12:40O. Varlamov—9990Y. Holoborodko—1111113
LAug 23 · 04:30O. Varlamov—511101192Y. Holoborodko—119127113
WAug 22 · 14:10O. Varlamov—581111113Y. Holoborodko—11117642
WAug 19 · 14:10O. Varlamov—119116113Y. Holoborodko—61151192
WAug 15 · 11:40O. Varlamov—111013113Y. Holoborodko—4121161
LAug 12 · 11:40O. Varlamov—1211101292Y. Holoborodko—1481210113
WAug 8 · 17:40O. Varlamov—1111113Y. Holoborodko—7870
WAug 1 · 17:40O. Varlamov—71113113Y. Holoborodko—1141151
WJul 30 · 17:10O. Varlamov—71111113Y. Holoborodko—118331
WJul 25 · 12:40O. Varlamov—1111113Y. Holoborodko—9580
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292LAug 29 · 17:10O. Varlamov1.8311931182O. Zhyrnov1.83611112113
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133WSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113LSep 5 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.509760LSep 3 · 17:40O. Nadporozhskyi2.1041112113Y. Holoborodko1.671171091
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