TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084177
Played Sep 6Finished
Andrii Droshchynskyi
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1145111111311––
Oleg Varlamov
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Droshchynskyi above · Oleg Varlamov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 67 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 69.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Droshchynskyi 8–5 Oleg Varlamov Oleg Varlamov has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Droshchynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Droshchynskyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Droshchynskyi 1731 vs Varlamov 1590
Droshchynskyi
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Droshchynskyi 80% vs Varlamov 60%
Droshchynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Droshchynskyi 70% vs Varlamov 50%
Droshchynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Droshchynskyi +2 · Varlamov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Droshchynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDroshchynskyi 1.40 / Varlamov 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084177
Droshchynskyi1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 69 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it72% 54 of 75
Varlamov2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 71 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDroshchynskyi6wins
AwayVarlamov4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDroshchynskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDroshchynskyi71.4%5 of 7
AwayVarlamov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Droshchynskyi7Varlamov3n = 10Droshchynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Droshchynskyi5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S3Droshchynskyi7Varlamov3n = 10Droshchynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Droshchynskyi3Varlamov4n = 7Varlamov took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDroshchynskyiVarlamovD − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.536.5+3.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDroshchynskyiVarlamovBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 200 vs 263 / 55057.5%47.8%115 / 200 vs 263 / 550Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiDroshchynskyi 1.40/Varlamov 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Droshchynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi—51111113O. Varlamov—119391
WAug 23 · 07:30A. Droshchynskyi—111376133O. Varlamov—6111111112
WAug 22 · 17:10A. Droshchynskyi—1111113O. Varlamov—9570
WAug 8 · 13:40A. Droshchynskyi—1116113O. Varlamov—51470
LJul 25 · 13:40A. Droshchynskyi—591191O. Varlamov—11118113
WJul 11 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi—111011113O. Varlamov—712991
LJul 5 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi—1112771O. Varlamov—91411113
WJun 25 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi—1311113O. Varlamov—11750
LJun 21 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi—791311112O. Varlamov—1111116133
LMay 31 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi—1178101O. Varlamov—41111123
A. Droshchynskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113LSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:00O. Kuzyshyn1.61761141A. Droshchynskyi2.2011115113WSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114103A. Droshchynskyi2.20731121WSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860WSep 5 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.509760WAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.4411961152O. Blashkun2.63711117113
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292LAug 29 · 17:10O. Varlamov1.8311931182O. Zhyrnov1.83611112113
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