TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037722
Played Aug 29Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12101012611711––
Andrii Droshchynskyi
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:42 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Andrii Droshchynskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 79 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 70.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 1–6 Andrii Droshchynskyi Valerii Merzlikin has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Droshchynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Droshchynskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1536 vs Droshchynskyi 1683
Droshchynskyi
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Droshchynskyi 60%
Droshchynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 50% vs Droshchynskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -2 · Droshchynskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Droshchynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Droshchynskyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.75 / Droshchynskyi 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13037722
Merzlikin2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog53% won 38 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back33% 12 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Droshchynskyi1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 65 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it72% 52 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMerzlikin1wins
AwayDroshchynskyi6wins
Droshchynskyi leads 6–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDroshchynskyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin2Droshchynskyi5n = 7Droshchynskyi took 5 of 7
S2Merzlikin2Droshchynskyi5n = 7Droshchynskyi took 5 of 7
S3Merzlikin3Droshchynskyi4n = 7Droshchynskyi took 4 of 7
S4Merzlikin0Droshchynskyi4n = 4Droshchynskyi took 4 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away457%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMerzlikinDroshchynskyiM − DBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match30.436.1−5.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinDroshchynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 624 vs 109 / 19344.1%56.5%275 / 624 vs 109 / 193Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiMerzlikin 2.75/Droshchynskyi 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Droshchynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 22 · 12:40V. Merzlikin—7860A. Droshchynskyi—1111113
LAug 13 · 15:10V. Merzlikin—101080A. Droshchynskyi—1212113
LAug 8 · 15:10V. Merzlikin—751171A. Droshchynskyi—11118113
LApr 5 · 11:30V. Merzlikin—1310691A. Droshchynskyi—111211113
LMar 26 · 16:10V. Merzlikin—771141A. Droshchynskyi—11118113
LMar 15 · 13:05V. Merzlikin—1011491A. Droshchynskyi—12911113
WFeb 22 · 08:00V. Merzlikin—1111113A. Droshchynskyi—6720
V. Merzlikin10
WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113WAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 29 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.255520O. Zhyrnov1.571111113WAug 27 · 17:10Y. Volkov2.00119681V. Merzlikin1.7381111113
A. Droshchynskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113LSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 07:00O. Kuzyshyn1.61761141A. Droshchynskyi2.2011115113WSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114103A. Droshchynskyi2.20731121WSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860WSep 5 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.509760LAug 29 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.4411961152O. Blashkun2.63711117113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.