TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037638
Played Aug 29Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511211––––
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Oleksandr Zhyrnov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 45 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 63.7%
45 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 13–29 Oleksandr Zhyrnov Valerii Merzlikin has won 13 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:13What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zhyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-29 in 42
Zhyrnov
Correct
gap of 16 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1588 vs Zhyrnov 1580
Merzlikin
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 60% vs Zhyrnov 40%
Merzlikin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 50% vs Zhyrnov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Zhyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Zhyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhyrnov form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.25 / Zhyrnov 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037638
Merzlikin2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 38 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back33% 12 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Zhyrnov1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 104 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it93% 49 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it84% 76 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin4wins
AwayZhyrnov6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderZhyrnov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin42.9%3 of 7
AwayZhyrnov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin7Zhyrnov3n = 10Merzlikin took 7 of 10
S2Merzlikin3Zhyrnov7n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S3Merzlikin6Zhyrnov4n = 10Merzlikin took 6 of 10
S4Merzlikin2Zhyrnov6n = 8Zhyrnov took 6 of 8
S5Merzlikin2Zhyrnov3n = 5Zhyrnov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinZhyrnovM − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.740.2−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinZhyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 620 vs 366 / 74644.2%49.1%274 / 620 vs 366 / 746Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovMerzlikin 2.25/Zhyrnov 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 14:40V. Merzlikin—11114113O. Zhyrnov—871131
LAug 22 · 15:40V. Merzlikin—117115102O. Zhyrnov—911711123
WJun 20 · 16:40V. Merzlikin—115119113O. Zhyrnov—41181182
WApr 16 · 14:50V. Merzlikin—1114113O. Zhyrnov—71290
WApr 3 · 09:20V. Merzlikin—711128113O. Zhyrnov—117101192
LMar 26 · 17:40V. Merzlikin—118891O. Zhyrnov—81111113
LFeb 13 · 13:05V. Merzlikin—11911662O. Zhyrnov—911711113
LFeb 10 · 11:20V. Merzlikin—11961152O. Zhyrnov—211119113
LFeb 9 · 22:20V. Merzlikin—831191O. Zhyrnov—11117113
LFeb 6 · 12:35V. Merzlikin—8770O. Zhyrnov—111193
V. Merzlikin10
WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113WAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852WAug 27 · 17:10Y. Volkov2.00119681V. Merzlikin1.7381111113
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113
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