TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043868
Played Aug 30Finished
Yaroslav Makovka
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191210311211911
Valerii Merzlikin
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Makovka above · Valerii Merzlikin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 68.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Makovka 2–7 Valerii Merzlikin Yaroslav Makovka has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Merzlikin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Merzlikin
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makovka 1473 vs Merzlikin 1535
Merzlikin
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makovka 0% vs Merzlikin 40%
Merzlikin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makovka 30% vs Merzlikin 50%
Merzlikin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Makovka -5 · Merzlikin +1
Makovka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Merzlikin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merzlikin form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakovka 2.75 / Merzlikin 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Merzlikin)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13043868
Makovka2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 47 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back21% 20 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Merzlikin1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 21 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMakovka2wins
AwayMerzlikin7wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 7–2, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakovka25%1 of 4
AwayMerzlikin80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makovka4Merzlikin5n = 9Merzlikin took 5 of 9
S2Makovka4Merzlikin5n = 9Merzlikin took 5 of 9
S3Makovka2Merzlikin7n = 9Merzlikin took 7 of 9
S4Makovka2Merzlikin3n = 5Merzlikin took 3 of 5
S5Makovka1Merzlikin3n = 4Merzlikin took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricMakovkaMerzlikinMakovka − MerzlikinBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match34.439.4−5.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakovkaMerzlikinBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 375 vs 277 / 62539.7%44.3%149 / 375 vs 277 / 625Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMakovka 2.75/Merzlikin 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka—11123292V. Merzlikin—9101111113
LAug 29 · 12:10Y. Makovka—11114852V. Merzlikin—951111113
LMar 29 · 11:30Y. Makovka—125111162V. Merzlikin—141166113
WMar 22 · 06:30Y. Makovka—1412811113V. Merzlikin—161011782
LJan 10 · 08:30Y. Makovka—8760V. Merzlikin—1111113
WJan 4 · 12:00Y. Makovka—1111113V. Merzlikin—6670
LNov 9 · 12:00Y. Makovka—117971V. Merzlikin—41111113
LAug 16 · 16:20Y. Makovka—61060V. Merzlikin—1112113
LAug 16 · 10:40Y. Makovka—9860V. Merzlikin—1111113
Y. Makovka10
WAug 30 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.40561171Y. Makovka2.7511117113WAug 30 · 09:30Y. Makovka3.001111113R. Sopivnyk1.367420LAug 30 · 08:30Y. Makovka2.7510131081Y. Holoborodko1.40121112113LAug 30 · 05:00Y. Makovka2.6312115622O. Zhyrnov1.441081111113LAug 29 · 17:40O. Blashkun1.30811911113Y. Makovka3.4011611572LAug 29 · 16:10Y. Makovka2.506870O. Zhyrnov1.501111113LAug 29 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.5711115133Y. Makovka2.257711111LAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 29 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.201111113Y. Makovka4.333840LAug 22 · 11:35Y. Makovka2.381112481Y. Volkov1.53131011113
V. Merzlikin10
WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113WAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 29 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.255520O. Zhyrnov1.571111113WAug 27 · 17:10Y. Volkov2.00119681V. Merzlikin1.7381111113
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