TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043744
Played Aug 30Finished
Yaroslav Makovka
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210118511611211
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Makovka above · Oleksandr Zhyrnov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 87 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 67.3%
87 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Makovka 12–17 Oleksandr Zhyrnov Yaroslav Makovka has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zhyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-17 in 29
Zhyrnov
Correct
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makovka 1446 vs Zhyrnov 1659
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 213 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makovka 0% vs Zhyrnov 80%
Zhyrnov
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makovka 40% vs Zhyrnov 60%
Zhyrnov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Makovka -5 · Zhyrnov +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Zhyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhyrnov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakovka 2.63 / Zhyrnov 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13043744
Makovka2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 45 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back21% 20 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Zhyrnov1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 106 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it84% 78 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakovka4wins
AwayZhyrnov6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZhyrnov leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakovka80%4 of 5
AwayZhyrnov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makovka5Zhyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S2Makovka3Zhyrnov7n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S3Makovka3Zhyrnov7n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S4Makovka3Zhyrnov1n = 4Makovka took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakovkaZhyrnovM − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.435.9−5.5per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakovkaZhyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 371 vs 371 / 75239.6%49.3%147 / 371 vs 371 / 752Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovMakovka 2.63/Zhyrnov 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 05:00Y. Makovka—12115622O. Zhyrnov—1081111113
LAug 29 · 16:10Y. Makovka—6870O. Zhyrnov—1111113
WJul 26 · 08:35Y. Makovka—11157113O. Zhyrnov—8131171
WJul 11 · 10:40Y. Makovka—1213113O. Zhyrnov—101190
LJul 4 · 15:10Y. Makovka—12580O. Zhyrnov—1411113
WJun 14 · 10:00Y. Makovka—12912113O. Zhyrnov—10111071
LJun 13 · 16:40Y. Makovka—6990O. Zhyrnov—1111113
LJun 7 · 06:00Y. Makovka—6460O. Zhyrnov—1111113
WMay 24 · 07:00Y. Makovka—11411113O. Zhyrnov—711961
LMay 3 · 11:30Y. Makovka—8580O. Zhyrnov—1111113
Y. Makovka10
WAug 30 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.40561171Y. Makovka2.7511117113WAug 30 · 09:30Y. Makovka3.001111113R. Sopivnyk1.367420LAug 30 · 08:30Y. Makovka2.7510131081Y. Holoborodko1.40121112113LAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113LAug 29 · 17:40O. Blashkun1.30811911113Y. Makovka3.4011611572LAug 29 · 16:10Y. Makovka2.506870O. Zhyrnov1.501111113LAug 29 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.5711115133Y. Makovka2.257711111LAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 29 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.201111113Y. Makovka4.333840LAug 22 · 11:35Y. Makovka2.381112481Y. Volkov1.53131011113
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WAug 29 · 16:10Y. Makovka2.506870O. Zhyrnov1.501111113
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