TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037698
Played Aug 29Finished
Oleg Varlamov
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171175111311––
Yaroslav Makovka
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeOleg Varlamov to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Varlamov above · Yaroslav Makovka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 76 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Oleg Varlamov at 60.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Varlamov 19–10 Yaroslav Makovka Yaroslav Makovka has won 10 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:53What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Varlamov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-10 in 29
Varlamov
Correct
gap of 9 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varlamov 1545 vs Makovka 1488
Varlamov
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varlamov 20% vs Makovka 40%
Makovka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varlamov 40% vs Makovka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varlamov -1 · Makovka -3
Makovka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Varlamov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarlamov 1.57 / Makovka 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Varlamov)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13037698
Varlamov1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 48 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 41 of 55
Makovka2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 45 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarlamov6wins
AwayMakovka4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarlamov66.7%6 of 9
AwayMakovkan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varlamov9Makovka1n = 10Varlamov took 9 of 10
S2Varlamov5Makovka5n = 10split evenly
S3Varlamov4Makovka6n = 10Makovka took 6 of 10
S4Varlamov3Makovka6n = 9Makovka took 6 of 9
S5Varlamov4Makovka3n = 7Varlamov took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarlamovMakovkaV − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match41.942.9−1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarlamovMakovkaBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 545 vs 147 / 36747.9%40.1%261 / 545 vs 147 / 367Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.435.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarlamovVarlamov 1.57/Makovka 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Varlamov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Varlamov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 25 · 11:40O. Varlamov—118311113Y. Makovka—61111772
LJul 12 · 08:00O. Varlamov—117661Y. Makovka—51111113
WJul 11 · 12:40O. Varlamov—1211118113Y. Makovka—109131182
WJul 5 · 08:00O. Varlamov—117213133Y. Makovka—6111111112
WApr 19 · 11:00O. Varlamov—1111113Y. Makovka—4940
LApr 18 · 11:40O. Varlamov—11711772Y. Makovka—811811113
WMar 7 · 16:40O. Varlamov—116117113Y. Makovka—91191182
WMar 1 · 08:30O. Varlamov—11119113Y. Makovka—791171
LFeb 1 · 12:30O. Varlamov—51111582Y. Makovka—118811113
LJan 31 · 12:40O. Varlamov—12118652Y. Makovka—1081111113
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292
Y. Makovka10
WAug 30 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.40561171Y. Makovka2.7511117113WAug 30 · 09:30Y. Makovka3.001111113R. Sopivnyk1.367420LAug 30 · 08:30Y. Makovka2.7510131081Y. Holoborodko1.40121112113LAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113LAug 30 · 05:00Y. Makovka2.6312115622O. Zhyrnov1.441081111113LAug 29 · 17:40O. Blashkun1.30811911113Y. Makovka3.4011611572LAug 29 · 16:10Y. Makovka2.506870O. Zhyrnov1.501111113LAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 29 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.201111113Y. Makovka4.333840LAug 22 · 11:35Y. Makovka2.381112481Y. Volkov1.53131011113
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