TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037645
Played Aug 29Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911511114118115
Yaroslav Makovka
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Yaroslav Makovka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 86 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 66.9%
86 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 5–2 Yaroslav Makovka Yaroslav Makovka has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Merzlikin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Merzlikin
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1574 vs Makovka 1497
Merzlikin
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 60% vs Makovka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 50% vs Makovka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -1 · Makovka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Merzlikin) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makovka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.44 / Makovka 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Merzlikin)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13037645
Merzlikin1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 18 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it67% 12 of 18
Makovka2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 45 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMerzlikin5wins
AwayMakovka2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin80%4 of 5
AwayMakovkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin5Makovka2n = 7Merzlikin took 5 of 7
S2Merzlikin5Makovka2n = 7Merzlikin took 5 of 7
S3Merzlikin5Makovka2n = 7Merzlikin took 5 of 7
S4Merzlikin1Makovka2n = 3Makovka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMerzlikinMakovkaMerzlikin − MakovkaBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match36.633.4+3.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinMakovkaBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 621 vs 147 / 36644.1%40.2%274 / 621 vs 147 / 366Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.44/Makovka 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WMar 29 · 11:30V. Merzlikin—141166113Y. Makovka—125111162
LMar 22 · 06:30V. Merzlikin—161011782Y. Makovka—1412811113
WJan 10 · 08:30V. Merzlikin—1111113Y. Makovka—8760
LJan 4 · 12:00V. Merzlikin—6670Y. Makovka—1111113
WNov 9 · 12:00V. Merzlikin—41111113Y. Makovka—117971
WAug 16 · 16:20V. Merzlikin—1112113Y. Makovka—61060
WAug 16 · 10:40V. Merzlikin—1111113Y. Makovka—9860
V. Merzlikin10
WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113LAug 29 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.255520O. Zhyrnov1.571111113WAug 27 · 17:10Y. Volkov2.00119681V. Merzlikin1.7381111113
Y. Makovka10
WAug 30 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.40561171Y. Makovka2.7511117113WAug 30 · 09:30Y. Makovka3.001111113R. Sopivnyk1.367420LAug 30 · 08:30Y. Makovka2.7510131081Y. Holoborodko1.40121112113LAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113LAug 30 · 05:00Y. Makovka2.6312115622O. Zhyrnov1.441081111113LAug 29 · 17:40O. Blashkun1.30811911113Y. Makovka3.4011611572LAug 29 · 16:10Y. Makovka2.506870O. Zhyrnov1.501111113LAug 29 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.5711115133Y. Makovka2.257711111LAug 29 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.201111113Y. Makovka4.333840LAug 22 · 11:35Y. Makovka2.381112481Y. Volkov1.53131011113
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