TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043735
Played Aug 30Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12108111614117––
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 89 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 9–12 Yevhenii Holoborodko Valerii Merzlikin has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Holoborodko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Holoborodko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1520 vs Holoborodko 1638
Holoborodko
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Holoborodko 60%
Holoborodko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 40% vs Holoborodko 60%
Holoborodko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -2 · Holoborodko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holoborodko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merzlikin form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.83 / Holoborodko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holoborodko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13043735
Merzlikin1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Holoborodko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin5wins
AwayHoloborodko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin66.7%4 of 6
AwayHoloborodko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin6Holoborodko4n = 10Merzlikin took 6 of 10
S2Merzlikin5Holoborodko5n = 10split evenly
S3Merzlikin5Holoborodko5n = 10split evenly
S4Merzlikin4Holoborodko3n = 7Merzlikin took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinHoloborodkoM − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.135.8+0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 629 vs 307 / 58044%52.9%277 / 629 vs 307 / 580Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoMerzlikin 1.83/Holoborodko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 16:10V. Merzlikin—8117101Y. Holoborodko—11911123
WAug 22 · 17:40V. Merzlikin—1315113Y. Holoborodko—111380
LAug 19 · 11:10V. Merzlikin—13671162Y. Holoborodko—1111119113
WAug 15 · 13:40V. Merzlikin—11511113Y. Holoborodko—711771
LAug 12 · 12:40V. Merzlikin—87110Y. Holoborodko—1111133
WAug 8 · 14:10V. Merzlikin—1111113Y. Holoborodko—7590
LJun 20 · 15:40V. Merzlikin—1141051Y. Holoborodko—31112113
WApr 3 · 12:20V. Merzlikin—11117113Y. Holoborodko—441171
LApr 2 · 11:10V. Merzlikin—971151Y. Holoborodko—11119113
WMar 28 · 13:10V. Merzlikin—91311113Y. Holoborodko—1111691
V. Merzlikin10
LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113WAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 29 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.255520O. Zhyrnov1.571111113WAug 27 · 17:10Y. Volkov2.00119681V. Merzlikin1.7381111113
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851WSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113LSep 5 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.509760
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