TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043773
Played Aug 30Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11617151012117––
Ruslan Sopivnyk
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Sopivnyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Ruslan Sopivnyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 89 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Ruslan Sopivnyk at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 5–2 Ruslan Sopivnyk Ruslan Sopivnyk has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:46What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sopivnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Merzlikin
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1522 vs Sopivnyk 1674
Sopivnyk
Wrong
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 20% vs Sopivnyk 80%
Sopivnyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 40% vs Sopivnyk 60%
Sopivnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -3 · Sopivnyk +1
Merzlikin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sopivnyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sopivnyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.91 / Sopivnyk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sopivnyk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13043773
Merzlikin1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 38 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back31% 12 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Sopivnyk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 76 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it87% 64 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMerzlikin5wins
AwaySopivnyk2wins
4 of 7 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin100%3 of 3
AwaySopivnyk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin3Sopivnyk4n = 7Sopivnyk took 4 of 7
S2Merzlikin4Sopivnyk3n = 7Merzlikin took 4 of 7
S3Merzlikin2Sopivnyk5n = 7Sopivnyk took 5 of 7
S4Merzlikin2Sopivnyk2n = 4split evenly
S5Merzlikin4Sopivnyk0n = 4Merzlikin took 4 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home457%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMerzlikinSopivnykM − SBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match36.639.0−2.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinSopivnykBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 625 vs 184 / 36844%50%275 / 625 vs 184 / 368Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SopivnykMerzlikin 1.91/Sopivnyk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sopivnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 15 · 10:40V. Merzlikin—115511113R. Sopivnyk—81111662
LAug 13 · 10:40V. Merzlikin—8450R. Sopivnyk—1111113
LAug 5 · 14:40V. Merzlikin—8380R. Sopivnyk—1111113
WApr 5 · 05:00V. Merzlikin—1111113R. Sopivnyk—7980
WMar 28 · 11:40V. Merzlikin—211134113R. Sopivnyk—117111192
WMar 26 · 11:40V. Merzlikin—131138113R. Sopivnyk—116111142
WFeb 19 · 16:40V. Merzlikin—10111213113R. Sopivnyk—123141192
V. Merzlikin10
WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113WAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 29 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.255520O. Zhyrnov1.571111113WAug 27 · 17:10Y. Volkov2.00119681V. Merzlikin1.7381111113
R. Sopivnyk10
LSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193WSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113LSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631WSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361WSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133WSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401071141R. Sopivnyk2.7512119113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870
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