TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037743
Played Aug 29Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
41161179––––
Oleg Varlamov
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeOleg Varlamov to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Oleg Varlamov below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-9
Point 48 set 3, 7-9 — our read held Oleg Varlamov at 66.1%
48 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 16–31 Oleg Varlamov Valerii Merzlikin has won 16 of their 47 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Varlamov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-31 in 47
Varlamov
Correct
gap of 15 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1569 vs Varlamov 1561
Merzlikin
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 40% vs Varlamov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 50% vs Varlamov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -1 · Varlamov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Varlamov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varlamov form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.63 / Varlamov 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Varlamov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13037743
Merzlikin2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 38 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back33% 12 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Varlamov1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 48 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 41 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin5wins
AwayVarlamov5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin100%5 of 5
AwayVarlamov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S2Merzlikin5Varlamov5n = 10split evenly
S3Merzlikin3Varlamov7n = 10Varlamov took 7 of 10
S4Merzlikin3Varlamov6n = 9Varlamov took 6 of 9
S5Merzlikin5Varlamov2n = 7Merzlikin took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinVarlamovM − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.245.4−5.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinVarlamovBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 623 vs 262 / 54644.1%48%275 / 623 vs 262 / 546Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarlamovMerzlikin 2.63/Varlamov 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Varlamov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Varlamov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 13:10V. Merzlikin—7690O. Varlamov—1111113
LAug 15 · 15:10V. Merzlikin—1012261O. Varlamov—12101183
WAug 12 · 17:10V. Merzlikin—111388113O. Varlamov—911111172
LAug 5 · 16:40V. Merzlikin—611101332O. Varlamov—1161211113
LApr 5 · 08:00V. Merzlikin—52111192O. Varlamov—111197113
WMar 26 · 14:40V. Merzlikin—118711113O. Varlamov—91111882
WMar 21 · 16:40V. Merzlikin—116125113O. Varlamov—811101182
WMar 11 · 18:10V. Merzlikin—111197123O. Varlamov—941111102
LJan 14 · 14:40V. Merzlikin—411961O. Varlamov—11911103
WJan 8 · 10:30V. Merzlikin—112129113O. Varlamov—911101192
V. Merzlikin10
WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113WAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 29 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.255520O. Zhyrnov1.571111113WAug 27 · 17:10Y. Volkov2.00119681V. Merzlikin1.7381111113
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292
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