TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037511
Played Aug 29Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911811––––
Oleksandr Blashkun
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:41 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Blashkun to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Oleksandr Blashkun below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Blashkun at 58.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 3–5 Oleksandr Blashkun Valerii Merzlikin has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:41What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Blashkun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Blashkun
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1582 vs Blashkun 1607
Blashkun
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 60% vs Blashkun 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 60% vs Blashkun 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Blashkun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Blashkun) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merzlikin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 2.20 / Blashkun 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Blashkun)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037511
Merzlikin2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 38 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back33% 12 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Blashkun1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 32 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it69% 25 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMerzlikin3wins
AwayBlashkun5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderBlashkun leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin66.7%2 of 3
AwayBlashkun80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin3Blashkun5n = 8Blashkun took 5 of 8
S2Merzlikin3Blashkun5n = 8Blashkun took 5 of 8
S3Merzlikin3Blashkun5n = 8Blashkun took 5 of 8
S4Merzlikin3Blashkun2n = 5Merzlikin took 3 of 5
S5Merzlikin1Blashkun2n = 3Blashkun took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricMerzlikinBlashkunM − BBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match35.240.1−4.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinBlashkunBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 622 vs 84 / 17744.2%47.5%275 / 622 vs 84 / 177Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BlashkunMerzlikin 2.20/Blashkun 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Blashkun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Blashkun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 15 · 12:10V. Merzlikin—126114113O. Blashkun—101171172
LAug 13 · 12:10V. Merzlikin—7750O. Blashkun—1111113
LAug 8 · 17:10V. Merzlikin—53180O. Blashkun—1111203
LJun 20 · 14:40V. Merzlikin—11811782O. Blashkun—811411113
WApr 5 · 06:00V. Merzlikin—81114133O. Blashkun—11612111
WMar 22 · 10:00V. Merzlikin—11134113O. Blashkun—7111191
LMar 21 · 14:10V. Merzlikin—81291102O. Blashkun—111011923
LFeb 26 · 12:10V. Merzlikin—51080O. Blashkun—1112113
V. Merzlikin10
WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193WAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 29 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.255520O. Zhyrnov1.571111113WAug 27 · 17:10Y. Volkov2.00119681V. Merzlikin1.7381111113
O. Blashkun10
LAug 30 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.40561171Y. Makovka2.7511117113WAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 07:30O. Blashkun1.44131112482R. Sopivnyk2.631191411113WAug 30 · 06:00O. Blashkun2.251211113O. Zhyrnov1.5710890LAug 30 · 04:30O. Blashkun1.61115691Y. Holoborodko2.2051111113WAug 29 · 17:40O. Blashkun1.30811911113Y. Makovka3.4011611572WAug 29 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.4411961152O. Blashkun2.63711117113WAug 29 · 12:40O. Blashkun2.6314117113O. Zhyrnov1.441251151LAug 29 · 11:40O. Varlamov2.10111163113O. Blashkun1.6768111142WAug 16 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.6111119113Y. Bondarenko2.20631181
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