TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037399
Played Aug 29Finished
Oleg Varlamov
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116118611311114
Oleksandr Blashkun
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:22 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Blashkun to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleg Varlamov above · Oleksandr Blashkun below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 82 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Oleksandr Blashkun at 57.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Varlamov 7–6 Oleksandr Blashkun Oleksandr Blashkun has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Blashkun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varlamov 1545 vs Blashkun 1629
Blashkun
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varlamov 40% vs Blashkun 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varlamov 30% vs Blashkun 50%
Blashkun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varlamov -3 · Blashkun +1
Varlamov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Blashkun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Blashkun form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarlamov 2.10 / Blashkun 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Blashkun)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037399
Varlamov2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 73 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Blashkun1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 32 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it69% 25 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarlamov6wins
AwayBlashkun4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVarlamov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarlamov75%3 of 4
AwayBlashkun50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varlamov4Blashkun6n = 10Blashkun took 6 of 10
S2Varlamov4Blashkun6n = 10Blashkun took 6 of 10
S3Varlamov7Blashkun3n = 10Varlamov took 7 of 10
S4Varlamov3Blashkun4n = 7Blashkun took 4 of 7
S5Varlamov3Blashkun1n = 4Varlamov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarlamovBlashkunV − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.1−0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarlamovBlashkunBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 543 vs 83 / 17547.9%47.4%260 / 543 vs 83 / 175Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BlashkunVarlamov 2.10/Blashkun 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Blashkun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Varlamov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 8 · 12:40O. Varlamov—1680O. Blashkun—1111113
LJul 23 · 15:10O. Varlamov—8560O. Blashkun—1111113
WJul 22 · 17:40O. Varlamov—171412113O. Blashkun—15161071
WJul 5 · 09:00O. Varlamov—1111113O. Blashkun—2570
LJun 21 · 09:30O. Varlamov—111311472O. Blashkun—515911113
WMay 1 · 14:10O. Varlamov—1111910123O. Blashkun—681112102
WApr 29 · 17:40O. Varlamov—81111123O. Blashkun—1159101
WApr 25 · 17:40O. Varlamov—611111113O. Blashkun—11119822
WApr 5 · 09:00O. Varlamov—2111111113O. Blashkun—11951392
LMar 21 · 12:40O. Varlamov—691271O. Blashkun—111110103
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292
O. Blashkun10
LAug 30 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.40561171Y. Makovka2.7511117113WAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 07:30O. Blashkun1.44131112482R. Sopivnyk2.631191411113WAug 30 · 06:00O. Blashkun2.251211113O. Zhyrnov1.5710890LAug 30 · 04:30O. Blashkun1.61115691Y. Holoborodko2.2051111113WAug 29 · 17:40O. Blashkun1.30811911113Y. Makovka3.4011611572WAug 29 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.4411961152O. Blashkun2.63711117113WAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113WAug 29 · 12:40O. Blashkun2.6314117113O. Zhyrnov1.441251151WAug 16 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.6111119113Y. Bondarenko2.20631181
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