TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078897
Played Sep 5Finished
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5115111113––––
Ruslan Sopivnyk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Sopivnyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhenii Holoborodko above · Ruslan Sopivnyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 56 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Ruslan Sopivnyk at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Holoborodko 24–13 Ruslan Sopivnyk Ruslan Sopivnyk has won 13 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:30What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holoborodko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-13 in 37
Holoborodko
Wrong
gap of 11 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holoborodko 1563 vs Sopivnyk 1687
Sopivnyk
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holoborodko 20% vs Sopivnyk 80%
Sopivnyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holoborodko 10% vs Sopivnyk 70%
Sopivnyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holoborodko -1 · Sopivnyk +3
Sopivnyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sopivnyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sopivnyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoloborodko 1.80 / Sopivnyk 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sopivnyk)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13078897
Holoborodko1.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 124 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it91% 52 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it68% 78 of 114
Sopivnyk1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 60 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoloborodko5wins
AwaySopivnyk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoloborodko50%2 of 4
AwaySopivnyk50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holoborodko4Sopivnyk6n = 10Sopivnyk took 6 of 10
S2Holoborodko5Sopivnyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Holoborodko6Sopivnyk4n = 10Holoborodko took 6 of 10
S4Holoborodko3Sopivnyk4n = 7Sopivnyk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoloborodkoSopivnykH − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.436.9−0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoloborodkoSopivnykBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 599 vs 193 / 38552.3%50.1%313 / 599 vs 193 / 385Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SopivnykHoloborodko 1.80/Sopivnyk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sopivnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sopivnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko—1011991R. Sopivnyk—12811113
WAug 30 · 06:30Y. Holoborodko—811148113R. Sopivnyk—119121162
LAug 28 · 11:30Y. Holoborodko—13411482R. Sopivnyk—1111411113
WAug 15 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko—51111113R. Sopivnyk—119861
LAug 14 · 06:05Y. Holoborodko—115491R. Sopivnyk—61111113
LAug 9 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko—111280R. Sopivnyk—1314113
LAug 6 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko—5860R. Sopivnyk—1111113
WAug 2 · 11:35Y. Holoborodko—11911113R. Sopivnyk—911471
WAug 1 · 12:10Y. Holoborodko—81111113R. Sopivnyk—116881
WJul 26 · 07:05Y. Holoborodko—1111113R. Sopivnyk—8860
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851WSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113LSep 5 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.509760LSep 3 · 17:40O. Nadporozhskyi2.1041112113Y. Holoborodko1.671171091
R. Sopivnyk10
LSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193WSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113LSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631WSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361WSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401071141R. Sopivnyk2.7512119113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870LSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972
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