TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072954
Played Sep 4Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
51114161210119117
Ruslan Sopivnyk
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeRuslan Sopivnyk to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Ruslan Sopivnyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 106 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ruslan Sopivnyk at 62.8%
106 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 2–4 Ruslan Sopivnyk Andrii Kotiash has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sopivnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Sopivnyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1566 vs Sopivnyk 1647
Sopivnyk
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 60% vs Sopivnyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 60% vs Sopivnyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -2 · Sopivnyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Sopivnyk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 2.63 / Sopivnyk 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Sopivnyk)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13072954
Kotiash2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 63 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Sopivnyk1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 68 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKotiash2wins
AwaySopivnyk4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderSopivnyk leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiashn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySopivnyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash2Sopivnyk4n = 6Sopivnyk took 4 of 6
S2Kotiash0Sopivnyk6n = 6Sopivnyk took 6 of 6
S3Kotiash2Sopivnyk4n = 6Sopivnyk took 4 of 6
S4Kotiash3Sopivnyk1n = 4Kotiash took 3 of 4
S5Kotiash2Sopivnyk1n = 3Kotiash took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKotiashSopivnykK − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match35.243.8−8.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashSopivnykBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 458 vs 190 / 38148%49.9%220 / 458 vs 190 / 381Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SopivnykKotiash 2.63/Sopivnyk 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Sopivnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 1 · 10:40A. Kotiash—1181111113R. Sopivnyk—13118992
WAug 28 · 09:30A. Kotiash—1161512113R. Sopivnyk—911171042
LAug 3 · 05:35A. Kotiash—7280R. Sopivnyk—1111113
LJul 18 · 07:35A. Kotiash—2710R. Sopivnyk—1111113
LJul 17 · 05:30A. Kotiash—46151182R. Sopivnyk—1111138113
LJan 15 · 07:05A. Kotiash—116791R. Sopivnyk—91111113
A. Kotiash10
LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.10631211153A. Troyan1.671111107132WSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572WSep 2 · 09:00A. Kotiash1.801111113V. Kolesnykov1.913990
R. Sopivnyk10
LSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193WSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113LSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631WSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361WSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133WSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401071141R. Sopivnyk2.7512119113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870
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