TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072980
Played Sep 4Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121012511––––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:53 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Karpenko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 60 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Oleh Karpenko at 54.1%
60 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 6–11 Oleh Karpenko Andrii Kotiash has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:53What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Karpenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Karpenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1579 vs Karpenko 1612
Karpenko
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 80% vs Karpenko 20%
Kotiash
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 60% vs Karpenko 20%
Kotiash
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -1 · Karpenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karpenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 2.00 / Karpenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Karpenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13072980
Kotiash2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 63 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Karpenko1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 98 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 73 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotiash4wins
AwayKarpenko6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKarpenko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiash100%4 of 4
AwayKarpenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S2Kotiash4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S3Kotiash6Karpenko4n = 10Kotiash took 6 of 10
S4Kotiash0Karpenko4n = 4Karpenko took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotiashKarpenkoKotiash − KarpenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match29.533.6−4.1per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 457 vs 353 / 67748.1%52.1%220 / 457 vs 353 / 677Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpenkoKotiash 2.00/Karpenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Karpenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 13:40A. Kotiash—341171O. Karpenko—11119113
LAug 26 · 09:05A. Kotiash—911531O. Karpenko—11811113
WAug 6 · 09:05A. Kotiash—1112113O. Karpenko—81090
WAug 4 · 10:35A. Kotiash—1111133O. Karpenko—48110
WJul 9 · 09:00A. Kotiash—1111113O. Karpenko—6620
WApr 29 · 05:00A. Kotiash—1112118113O. Karpenko—31491182
LApr 7 · 07:35A. Kotiash—2660O. Karpenko—1111113
LApr 2 · 05:00A. Kotiash—1011100O. Karpenko—1213123
LMar 30 · 08:35A. Kotiash—641171O. Karpenko—11118113
LMar 24 · 13:10A. Kotiash—5720O. Karpenko—1111113
A. Kotiash10
LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.10631211153A. Troyan1.671111107132WSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572WSep 2 · 09:00A. Kotiash1.801111113V. Kolesnykov1.913990
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113LSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
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