TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072913
Played Sep 4Finished
Andrey Troyan
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111214116118119
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Karpenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 99 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Oleh Karpenko at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 41–34 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 34 of their 75 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:28What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Troyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-34 in 75
Troyan
Correct
gap of 7 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Troyan 1563 vs Karpenko 1625
Karpenko
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Troyan 40% vs Karpenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Troyan 40% vs Karpenko 20%
Troyan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Troyan -1 · Karpenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karpenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 1.80 / Karpenko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Karpenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13072913
Troyan1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 174 of 268
Up 2–0, closes it94% 93 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it78% 131 of 167
Karpenko1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 85 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back21% 13 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTroyan5wins
AwayKarpenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyan66.7%2 of 3
AwayKarpenko57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan3Karpenko7n = 10Karpenko took 7 of 10
S2Troyan6Karpenko4n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S3Troyan5Karpenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Troyan3Karpenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTroyanKarpenkoT − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.534.5+2.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 971 vs 354 / 67847.1%52.2%457 / 971 vs 354 / 678Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpenkoTroyan 1.80/Karpenko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Karpenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 10:35A. Troyan—711951O. Karpenko—11511113
LAug 25 · 10:00A. Troyan—81060O. Karpenko—1112113
WAug 17 · 10:00A. Troyan—1113133O. Karpenko—911110
WAug 11 · 10:30A. Troyan—6131111113O. Karpenko—11158992
WAug 6 · 10:35A. Troyan—81111113O. Karpenko—115951
LAug 4 · 06:35A. Troyan—71070O. Karpenko—1112113
WJul 27 · 05:35A. Troyan—61111113O. Karpenko—113121
WJul 24 · 10:05A. Troyan—1111133O. Karpenko—87110
LJul 21 · 07:05A. Troyan—9118101O. Karpenko—11611123
LJul 20 · 12:05A. Troyan—11141081O. Karpenko—41612113
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870LSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.6112811752A. Troyan2.201011811113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113LSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
Upcoming Matches
A. Troyan
O. Karpenko
Nothing scheduled
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