TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072996
Played Sep 4Finished
Yurii Volkov
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210811118711511
Andrey Troyan
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeYurii Volkov to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingYurii Volkov above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 94 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Yurii Volkov at 56.5%
94 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Volkov 117–100 Andrey Troyan Andrey Troyan has won 100 of their 217 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Volkov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
117-100 in 217
Volkov
Wrong
gap of 17 in 217, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volkov 1672 vs Troyan 1564
Volkov
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volkov 60% vs Troyan 20%
Volkov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volkov 30% vs Troyan 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Volkov -1 · Troyan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Volkov) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolkov 1.61 / Troyan 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Volkov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13072996
Volkov1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 158 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it96% 81 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it85% 117 of 137
Troyan2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 55 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back14% 16 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVolkov7wins
AwayTroyan3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVolkov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolkovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTroyan25%2 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volkov2Troyan8n = 10Troyan took 8 of 10
S2Volkov5Troyan5n = 10split evenly
S3Volkov6Troyan4n = 10Volkov took 6 of 10
S4Volkov6Troyan2n = 8Volkov took 6 of 8
S5Volkov4Troyan0n = 4Volkov took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVolkovTroyanV − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.836.1+2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolkovTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 767 vs 456 / 96953.6%47.1%411 / 767 vs 456 / 969Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolkovVolkov 1.61/Troyan 2.20
Miss
What we said
60.5%
Volkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 06:00Y. Volkov—861111113A. Troyan—11118672
WAug 22 · 10:35Y. Volkov—1371111113A. Troyan—15119772
WAug 20 · 06:30Y. Volkov—771111113A. Troyan—11117782
LAug 19 · 08:05Y. Volkov—116551A. Troyan—91111113
LAug 17 · 06:00Y. Volkov—611381A. Troyan—11711113
LAug 15 · 06:35Y. Volkov—1780A. Troyan—1111113
WAug 11 · 05:00Y. Volkov—91111123A. Troyan—1193101
WAug 10 · 05:05Y. Volkov—61111113A. Troyan—118421
WAug 8 · 09:35Y. Volkov—1111113A. Troyan—5440
WAug 7 · 10:35Y. Volkov—9111311113A. Troyan—11315642
Y. Volkov10
LSep 5 · 11:19I. Efimenko1.8511116113Y. Volkov1.85881191WSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123WSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:18Y. Volkov1.67811751I. Efimenko2.1011611113WSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912LSep 4 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.2011381192R. Sopivnyk1.61611114113LSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113WAug 29 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.671111113A. Troyan2.108780
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Khairov2.204580A. Troyan1.611111113WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870LAug 29 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.671111113A. Troyan2.108780
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