TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089098
Played Sep 7Finished
Valerii Kolesnykov
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1183114111012––
Andrey Troyan
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 70 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Andrey Troyan at 65.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 11–36 Andrey Troyan Valerii Kolesnykov has won 11 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:02What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Troyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-36 in 47
Troyan
Correct
gap of 25 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1545 vs Troyan 1570
Troyan
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Troyan 40%
Kolesnykov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Troyan 40%
Kolesnykov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov +1 · Troyan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Troyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 2.75 / Troyan 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Troyan)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13089098
Kolesnykov2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 37 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Troyan1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 177 of 272
Up 2–0, closes it93% 94 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it78% 133 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnykov0wins
AwayTroyan10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTroyan leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykov0%0 of 3
AwayTroyan100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov3Troyan7n = 10Troyan took 7 of 10
S2Kolesnykov4Troyan6n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S3Kolesnykov2Troyan8n = 10Troyan took 8 of 10
S4Kolesnykov2Troyan6n = 8Troyan took 6 of 8
S5Kolesnykov0Troyan3n = 3Troyan took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnykovTroyanK − TBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.142.2−10.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 667 vs 459 / 97453.2%47.1%355 / 667 vs 459 / 974Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanKolesnykov 2.75/Troyan 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov—1134101A. Troyan—81111123
LSep 2 · 05:30V. Kolesnykov—781171A. Troyan—11116113
LJul 28 · 05:35V. Kolesnykov—511861A. Troyan—11611113
LJul 27 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov—46111492A. Troyan—1111812113
LJul 20 · 05:35V. Kolesnykov—13113922A. Troyan—1161111113
LJul 17 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov—811761A. Troyan—11911113
LJul 13 · 10:05V. Kolesnykov—6850A. Troyan—1111113
LJul 6 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov—61171152A. Troyan—119114113
LJun 29 · 08:00V. Kolesnykov—1157131A. Troyan—71111153
LJun 23 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov—51060A. Troyan—1112113
V. Kolesnykov10
WSep 2 · 11:00V. Kolesnykov2.2551111113D. Khairov1.57119441LSep 2 · 09:00A. Kotiash1.801111113V. Kolesnykov1.913990WSep 2 · 08:00V. Kolesnykov2.20912119133O. Volynets1.611110511112WSep 2 · 07:00I. Emets1.9167121182V. Kolesnykov1.801111104113LSep 2 · 05:30V. Kolesnykov2.75781171A. Troyan1.4011116113LAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113WAug 31 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov1.6711114113A. Kovalenko2.10961191WAug 31 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov1.67101111113A. Martyniuk2.10127861WAug 31 · 06:35V. Kolesnykov1.73118611113S. Solomko2.0061111892LAug 31 · 05:05V. Kolesnykov1.618680E. Populovskyi2.201111113
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870WSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892LSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 2 · 05:30V. Kolesnykov2.75781171A. Troyan1.4011116113
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