TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049354
Played Aug 31Finished
Valerii Kolesnykov
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611811––––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Kolesnykov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Valerii Kolesnykov at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 9–14 Eduard Populovskyi Valerii Kolesnykov has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:00What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolesnykov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-14 in 23
Populovskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1570 vs Populovskyi 1391
Kolesnykov
Wrong
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Populovskyi 40%
Kolesnykov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Populovskyi 30%
Kolesnykov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov -1 · Populovskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kolesnykov) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 1.61 / Populovskyi 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kolesnykov)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049354
Kolesnykov1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 101 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it72% 66 of 92
Populovskyi2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 49 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnykov4wins
AwayPopulovskyi6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPopulovskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykov60%3 of 5
AwayPopulovskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolesnykov2Populovskyi8n = 10Populovskyi took 8 of 10
S3Kolesnykov5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolesnykov3Populovskyi4n = 7Populovskyi took 4 of 7
S5Kolesnykov2Populovskyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnykovPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.938.8−1.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 671 vs 338 / 68453.4%49.4%358 / 671 vs 338 / 684Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnykovKolesnykov 1.61/Populovskyi 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Kolesnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 05:05V. Kolesnykov—1211118113E. Populovskyi—14641192
WMay 5 · 12:10V. Kolesnykov—11911113E. Populovskyi—811751
WApr 13 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov—12711113E. Populovskyi—1011771
LMar 17 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov—91111692E. Populovskyi—116511113
LMar 12 · 06:05V. Kolesnykov—7480E. Populovskyi—1111113
WMar 10 · 16:40V. Kolesnykov—117612113E. Populovskyi—811111092
LMar 5 · 10:00V. Kolesnykov—2580E. Populovskyi—1111113
LMar 2 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov—1121181E. Populovskyi—61113113
LJan 9 · 12:05V. Kolesnykov—11911962E. Populovskyi—511111113
LDec 19 · 08:00V. Kolesnykov—104140E. Populovskyi—1211163
V. Kolesnykov10
LSep 7 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov2.10124591D. Khairov1.67101111113LSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 2 · 11:00V. Kolesnykov2.2551111113D. Khairov1.57119441LSep 2 · 09:00A. Kotiash1.801111113V. Kolesnykov1.913990WSep 2 · 08:00V. Kolesnykov2.20912119133O. Volynets1.611110511112WSep 2 · 07:00I. Emets1.9167121182V. Kolesnykov1.801111104113LSep 2 · 05:30V. Kolesnykov2.75781171A. Troyan1.4011116113LAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113WAug 31 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov1.6711114113A. Kovalenko2.10961191WAug 31 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov1.67101111113A. Martyniuk2.10127861
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
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