TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049362
Played Aug 31Finished
Valerii Kolesnykov
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119116411119––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Kolesnykov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Valerii Kolesnykov at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 4–5 Anatolii Kovalenko Valerii Kolesnykov has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolesnykov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1552 vs Kovalenko 1411
Kolesnykov
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Kovalenko 40%
Kolesnykov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 70% vs Kovalenko 30%
Kolesnykov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov +2 · Kovalenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Kolesnykov) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 1.67 / Kovalenko 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kolesnykov)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049362
Kolesnykov1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 101 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it72% 66 of 92
Kovalenko2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog39% won 40 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKolesnykov4wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
7 of 9 to a deciderKovalenko leads 5–4, and 7 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykov25%1 of 4
AwayKovalenko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov4Kovalenko5n = 9Kovalenko took 5 of 9
S2Kolesnykov3Kovalenko6n = 9Kovalenko took 6 of 9
S3Kolesnykov3Kovalenko6n = 9Kovalenko took 6 of 9
S4Kolesnykov5Kovalenko3n = 8Kolesnykov took 5 of 8
S5Kolesnykov4Kovalenko3n = 7Kolesnykov took 4 of 7
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKolesnykovKovalenkoKolesnykov − KovalenkoBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match38.844.0−5.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 674 vs 265 / 49453.4%53.6%360 / 674 vs 265 / 494Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolesnykovKolesnykov 1.67/Kovalenko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Kolesnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolesnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 24 · 07:30V. Kolesnykov—971111113A. Kovalenko—11113562
WMay 31 · 08:50V. Kolesnykov—711711113A. Kovalenko—11611742
LApr 1 · 05:05V. Kolesnykov—11631132A. Kovalenko—811118113
LMar 17 · 11:00V. Kolesnykov—11154582A. Kovalenko—8131111113
LMar 16 · 08:35V. Kolesnykov—1241061A. Kovalenko—101112113
LMar 10 · 12:10V. Kolesnykov—6340A. Kovalenko—1111113
LMar 2 · 10:05V. Kolesnykov—51112722A. Kovalenko—1171011113
WFeb 24 · 14:40V. Kolesnykov—1131011113A. Kovalenko—51112782
WJan 27 · 16:10V. Kolesnykov—961111113A. Kovalenko—11119982
V. Kolesnykov10
LSep 7 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov2.10124591D. Khairov1.67101111113LSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 2 · 11:00V. Kolesnykov2.2551111113D. Khairov1.57119441LSep 2 · 09:00A. Kotiash1.801111113V. Kolesnykov1.913990WSep 2 · 08:00V. Kolesnykov2.20912119133O. Volynets1.611110511112WSep 2 · 07:00I. Emets1.9167121182V. Kolesnykov1.801111104113LSep 2 · 05:30V. Kolesnykov2.75781171A. Troyan1.4011116113LAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113WAug 31 · 08:05V. Kolesnykov1.67101111113A. Martyniuk2.10127861WAug 31 · 06:35V. Kolesnykov1.73118611113S. Solomko2.0061111892
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:05K. Klymenko1.73881111113A. Kovalenko2.0011118722WSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123
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