TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13082169
Played Sep 5Finished
Andrey Troyan
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117811711112117
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 86 set 5, 11-7
86 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 40–80 Yaroslav Kovshun Andrey Troyan has won 40 of their 120 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Troyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 1.73 / Kovshun 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Troyan)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13082169
Troyan1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 175 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it93% 93 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it78% 131 of 168
Kovshun2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 44 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTroyan2wins
AwayKovshun8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyan25%1 of 4
AwayKovshun83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan4Kovshun6n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S2Troyan3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S3Troyan3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S4Troyan3Kovshun5n = 8Kovshun took 5 of 8
S5Troyan1Kovshun2n = 3Kovshun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTroyanKovshunT − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.841.3−5.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime459 / 977 vs 342 / 64147%53.4%459 / 977 vs 342 / 641Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanTroyan 1.73/Kovshun 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 11:35A. Troyan—118611113Y. Kovshun—61111862
WAug 28 · 04:30A. Troyan—51211113Y. Kovshun—1110391
LAug 15 · 05:35A. Troyan—9111291Y. Kovshun—11914113
LAug 14 · 05:05A. Troyan—10680Y. Kovshun—1211113
LJul 31 · 05:03A. Troyan—821141Y. Kovshun—11117113
LJul 28 · 10:35A. Troyan—811791Y. Kovshun—11611113
LJul 24 · 09:05A. Troyan—1151111112Y. Kovshun—911513133
LJul 14 · 10:35A. Troyan—11741152Y. Kovshun—711119113
LJul 11 · 10:35A. Troyan—134591Y. Kovshun—111111113
LJul 3 · 05:05A. Troyan—811100Y. Kovshun—1113123
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870WSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892LSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.6112811752A. Troyan2.201011811113
Y. Kovshun10
WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Kovshun3.00891111133R. Sopivnyk1.36111188112LAug 29 · 11:35A. Troyan3.00118611113Y. Kovshun1.3661111862
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