TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072979
Played Sep 4Finished
Yaroslav Kovshun
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8119111181181311
Ruslan Sopivnyk
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeRuslan Sopivnyk to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Ruslan Sopivnyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 101 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Ruslan Sopivnyk at 72.8%
101 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 5–9 Ruslan Sopivnyk Yaroslav Kovshun has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Sopivnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Sopivnyk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1529 vs Sopivnyk 1622
Sopivnyk
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 40% vs Sopivnyk 60%
Sopivnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 20% vs Sopivnyk 40%
Sopivnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun -1 · Sopivnyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Sopivnyk) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sopivnyk form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 3.00 / Sopivnyk 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Sopivnyk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13072979
Kovshun3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 42 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Sopivnyk1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 68 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it94% 50 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun4wins
AwaySopivnyk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSopivnyk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshunn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySopivnyk75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun2Sopivnyk8n = 10Sopivnyk took 8 of 10
S2Kovshun0Sopivnyk10n = 10Sopivnyk took 10 of 10
S3Kovshun7Sopivnyk3n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S4Kovshun5Sopivnyk2n = 7Kovshun took 5 of 7
S5Kovshun2Sopivnyk1n = 3Kovshun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunSopivnykK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.040.5−3.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunSopivnykBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 633 vs 188 / 37953.6%49.6%339 / 633 vs 188 / 379Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SopivnykKovshun 3.00/Sopivnyk 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72%
Sopivnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Kovshun—891111133R. Sopivnyk—111188112
LAug 28 · 07:30Y. Kovshun—9570R. Sopivnyk—1111113
LAug 14 · 08:05Y. Kovshun—8960R. Sopivnyk—1111113
WAug 9 · 04:30Y. Kovshun—111011113R. Sopivnyk—712981
WAug 6 · 16:10Y. Kovshun—11711123R. Sopivnyk—7119101
LAug 2 · 07:35Y. Kovshun—61011111R. Sopivnyk—11127133
LJul 18 · 08:35Y. Kovshun—881161R. Sopivnyk—11119113
LJul 17 · 06:30Y. Kovshun—3760R. Sopivnyk—1111113
WJul 14 · 11:35Y. Kovshun—7141111133R. Sopivnyk—111697112
LJun 27 · 10:40Y. Kovshun—761111122R. Sopivnyk—111172143
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113LAug 29 · 11:35A. Troyan3.00118611113Y. Kovshun1.3661111862
R. Sopivnyk10
LSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193WSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113LSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631WSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361WSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133WSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401071141R. Sopivnyk2.7512119113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870
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