TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072976
Played Sep 4Finished
Yaroslav Kovshun
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181181311––––
Andrey Troyan
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Kovshun above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 62 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 64.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kovshun 80–40 Andrey Troyan Andrey Troyan has won 40 of their 120 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
80-40 in 120
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 40 in 120, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovshun 1558 vs Troyan 1563
Troyan
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovshun 60% vs Troyan 40%
Kovshun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovshun 40% vs Troyan 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovshun +2 · Troyan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kovshun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovshun 1.40 / Troyan 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Kovshun)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13072976
Kovshun1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 85 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 62 of 80
Troyan2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 55 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back14% 16 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovshun8wins
AwayTroyan2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovshun83.3%5 of 6
AwayTroyan25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovshun6Troyan4n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S2Kovshun7Troyan3n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S3Kovshun7Troyan3n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S4Kovshun5Troyan3n = 8Kovshun took 5 of 8
S5Kovshun2Troyan1n = 3Kovshun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovshunTroyanK − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.335.8+5.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovshunTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime341 / 635 vs 457 / 97153.7%47.1%341 / 635 vs 457 / 971Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKovshun 1.40/Troyan 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.7%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 11:35Y. Kovshun—61111862A. Troyan—118611113
LAug 28 · 04:30Y. Kovshun—1110391A. Troyan—51211113
WAug 15 · 05:35Y. Kovshun—11914113A. Troyan—9111291
WAug 14 · 05:05Y. Kovshun—1211113A. Troyan—10680
WJul 31 · 05:03Y. Kovshun—11117113A. Troyan—821141
WJul 28 · 10:35Y. Kovshun—11611113A. Troyan—811791
WJul 24 · 09:05Y. Kovshun—911513133A. Troyan—1151111112
WJul 14 · 10:35Y. Kovshun—711119113A. Troyan—11741152
WJul 11 · 10:35Y. Kovshun—111111113A. Troyan—134591
WJul 3 · 05:05Y. Kovshun—1113123A. Troyan—811100
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Kovshun3.00891111133R. Sopivnyk1.36111188112LAug 29 · 11:35A. Troyan3.00118611113Y. Kovshun1.3661111862
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870WSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WAug 29 · 11:35A. Troyan3.00118611113Y. Kovshun1.3661111862
Upcoming Matches
Y. Kovshun
Nothing scheduled
A. Troyan
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