TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037489
Played Aug 29Finished
Andrey Troyan
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116811611118116
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:42 and never touched — 67.6% is still 67.6%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
67.6%
67.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrey Troyan above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 67.6%
89 points played in total.
H2H Andrey Troyan 39–80 Yaroslav Kovshun Andrey Troyan has won 39 of their 119 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:42What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kovshun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-80 in 119
Kovshun
Wrong
gap of 41 in 119, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Troyan 1604 vs Kovshun 1531
Troyan
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Troyan 60% vs Kovshun 40%
Troyan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Troyan 60% vs Kovshun 30%
Troyan
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Troyan -1 · Kovshun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kovshun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTroyan 3.00 / Kovshun 1.36
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Kovshun)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13037489
Troyan3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 55 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 75
Kovshun1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 85 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 62 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTroyan1wins
AwayKovshun9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTroyan0%0 of 3
AwayKovshun85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Troyan3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S2Troyan3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S3Troyan3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S4Troyan2Kovshun5n = 7Kovshun took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTroyanKovshunT − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.540.4−7.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTroyanKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 977 vs 347 / 65147.2%53.3%461 / 977 vs 347 / 651Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunTroyan 3.00/Kovshun 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.6%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Troyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 04:30A. Troyan—51211113Y. Kovshun—1110391
LAug 15 · 05:35A. Troyan—9111291Y. Kovshun—11914113
LAug 14 · 05:05A. Troyan—10680Y. Kovshun—1211113
LJul 31 · 05:03A. Troyan—821141Y. Kovshun—11117113
LJul 28 · 10:35A. Troyan—811791Y. Kovshun—11611113
LJul 24 · 09:05A. Troyan—1151111112Y. Kovshun—911513133
LJul 14 · 10:35A. Troyan—11741152Y. Kovshun—711119113
LJul 11 · 10:35A. Troyan—134591Y. Kovshun—111111113
LJul 3 · 05:05A. Troyan—811100Y. Kovshun—1113123
LJun 28 · 06:35A. Troyan—5270Y. Kovshun—1111113
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870WSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892LSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Kovshun3.00891111133R. Sopivnyk1.36111188112
Upcoming Matches
A. Troyan
Y. Kovshun
Nothing scheduled
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