TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072953
Played Sep 4Finished
Yurii Volkov
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711411119511––
Andrii Kotiash
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched — 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeYurii Volkov to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Volkov above · Andrii Kotiash below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Yurii Volkov at 81.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Volkov 13–2 Andrii Kotiash Andrii Kotiash has won 2 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Volkov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-2 in 15
Volkov
Wrong
gap of 11 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volkov 1654 vs Kotiash 1579
Volkov
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volkov 40% vs Kotiash 60%
Kotiash
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volkov 40% vs Kotiash 70%
Kotiash
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Volkov +1 · Kotiash +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Volkov) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotiash form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolkov 1.25 / Kotiash 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Volkov)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13072953
Volkov1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 158 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it96% 81 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it85% 117 of 137
Kotiash3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 63 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVolkov9wins
AwayKotiash1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVolkov leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVolkov100%8 of 8
AwayKotiashn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volkov8Kotiash2n = 10Volkov took 8 of 10
S2Volkov8Kotiash2n = 10Volkov took 8 of 10
S3Volkov9Kotiash1n = 10Volkov took 9 of 10
S4Volkov4Kotiash1n = 5Volkov took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVolkovKotiashV − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.924.4+13.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolkovKotiashBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 770 vs 221 / 45953.5%48.2%412 / 770 vs 221 / 459Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolkovVolkov 1.25/Kotiash 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.3%
Volkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 07:05Y. Volkov—1111133A. Kotiash—75110
WAug 20 · 11:00Y. Volkov—1211113A. Kotiash—10440
WAug 7 · 09:05Y. Volkov—81211113A. Kotiash—1110561
WAug 4 · 07:05Y. Volkov—1112113A. Kotiash—31030
WAug 3 · 06:35Y. Volkov—12811113A. Kotiash—1011531
LJul 18 · 10:05Y. Volkov—61111582A. Kotiash—113811113
WJul 17 · 07:00Y. Volkov—1112113A. Kotiash—31060
WJul 11 · 11:05Y. Volkov—11813113A. Kotiash—4111141
WJul 9 · 11:00Y. Volkov—11118113A. Kotiash—251131
WMay 10 · 18:00Y. Volkov—1111113A. Kotiash—6240
Y. Volkov10
LSep 5 · 11:19I. Efimenko1.8511116113Y. Volkov1.85881191WSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123WSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:18Y. Volkov1.67811751I. Efimenko2.1011611113WSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912LSep 4 · 07:30Y. Volkov2.2011381192R. Sopivnyk1.61611114113LSep 4 · 06:00Y. Volkov1.6112811752A. Troyan2.201011811113LSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113WAug 29 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.671111113A. Troyan2.108780
A. Kotiash10
LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:00A. Kotiash2.10631211153A. Troyan1.671111107132WSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572WSep 2 · 09:00A. Kotiash1.801111113V. Kolesnykov1.913990
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