TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072956
Played Sep 4Finished
Andrii Kotiash
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61131112101171513
Andrey Troyan
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrey Troyan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Andrey Troyan below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 99 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Andrey Troyan at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 8–12 Andrey Troyan Andrii Kotiash has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:42What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Troyan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-12 in 20
Troyan
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1582 vs Troyan 1575
Kotiash
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 100% vs Troyan 40%
Kotiash
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 60% vs Troyan 40%
Kotiash
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash +5 · Troyan +1
Kotiash
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Troyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Troyan form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 2.10 / Troyan 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Troyan)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13072956
Kotiash2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 63 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Troyan1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 174 of 268
Up 2–0, closes it94% 93 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it78% 131 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotiash4wins
AwayTroyan6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTroyan leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotiashn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTroyan66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotiash1Troyan9n = 10Troyan took 9 of 10
S2Kotiash6Troyan4n = 10Kotiash took 6 of 10
S3Kotiash4Troyan6n = 10Troyan took 6 of 10
S4Kotiash4Troyan3n = 7Kotiash took 4 of 7
S5Kotiash2Troyan2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotiashTroyanK − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match38.142.1−4.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashTroyanBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 455 vs 456 / 96848.1%47.1%219 / 455 vs 456 / 968Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TroyanKotiash 2.10/Troyan 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Troyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 07:30A. Kotiash—11412143A. Troyan—41110121
LAug 29 · 07:35A. Kotiash—8135111A. Troyan—111111133
LAug 28 · 10:00A. Kotiash—10860A. Troyan—1211113
WAug 26 · 05:35A. Kotiash—611119113A. Troyan—11641182
LAug 22 · 12:05A. Kotiash—7270A. Troyan—1111113
WAug 20 · 05:30A. Kotiash—71116133A. Troyan—11414111
LAug 7 · 05:35A. Kotiash—91111972A. Troyan—117911113
LAug 6 · 05:35A. Kotiash—911121182A. Troyan—118149113
WAug 4 · 05:05A. Kotiash—1113411143A. Troyan—1311119122
LAug 3 · 07:35A. Kotiash—4760A. Troyan—1111113
A. Kotiash10
LSep 5 · 10:19A. Kotiash3.259115101Y. Volkov1.3311211123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Kotiash4.333640I. Efimenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113WSep 4 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.25741151A. Kotiash3.7511119113WSep 4 · 09:30A. Kotiash2.635141211113R. Sopivnyk1.44111610972LSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 2 · 10:30A. Kotiash1.831111711113I. Emets1.8381311572WSep 2 · 09:00A. Kotiash1.801111113V. Kolesnykov1.913990
A. Troyan10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Khairov2.204580A. Troyan1.611111113WSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.751134101A. Troyan1.4081111123WSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272LSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:20I. Efimenko1.531111113A. Troyan2.388870WSep 5 · 06:48A. Kotiash2.007240A. Troyan1.731111113LSep 5 · 05:48Y. Volkov1.57512115113A. Troyan2.25111091152LSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870WSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892
Upcoming Matches
A. Kotiash
Nothing scheduled
A. Troyan
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