TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072994
Played Sep 4Finished
Ruslan Sopivnyk
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111181210––––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeRuslan Sopivnyk to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Sopivnyk above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 65 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Ruslan Sopivnyk at 60.8%
65 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Sopivnyk 3–0 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sopivnyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Sopivnyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sopivnyk 1649 vs Karpenko 1621
Sopivnyk
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sopivnyk 60% vs Karpenko 20%
Sopivnyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sopivnyk 40% vs Karpenko 20%
Sopivnyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sopivnyk -2 · Karpenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Sopivnyk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSopivnyk 1.44 / Karpenko 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Sopivnyk)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13072994
Sopivnyk1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 71 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it91% 52 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it83% 59 of 71
Karpenko2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 85 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back20% 12 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSopivnyk3wins
AwayKarpenko0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSopivnyk leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sopivnyk2Karpenko1n = 3Sopivnyk took 2 of 3
S2Sopivnyk2Karpenko1n = 3Sopivnyk took 2 of 3
S3Sopivnyk3Karpenko0n = 3Sopivnyk took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSopivnykKarpenkoS − KBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match41.729.0+12.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSopivnykKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 388 vs 355 / 68050%52.2%194 / 388 vs 355 / 680Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SopivnykSopivnyk 1.44/Karpenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Sopivnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sopivnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk—1311123O. Karpenko—118100
WSep 1 · 12:40R. Sopivnyk—91111113O. Karpenko—115531
WJun 16 · 05:30R. Sopivnyk—119115113O. Karpenko—51151122
R. Sopivnyk10
LSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193WSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113LSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631WSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361WSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133WSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401071141R. Sopivnyk2.7512119113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.171111113A. Troyan4.505870
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113LSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
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