TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061273
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleh Karpenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210811411911––
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Karpenko above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 70.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Karpenko 0–1 Yevhenii Holoborodko Oleh Karpenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:25What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Holoborodko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Karpenko 1651 vs Holoborodko 1625
Karpenko
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpenko 20% vs Holoborodko 40%
Holoborodko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpenko 50% vs Holoborodko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpenko -4 · Holoborodko -2
Karpenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Holoborodko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpenko 3.25 / Holoborodko 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Holoborodko)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13061273
Karpenko3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 85 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back31% 28 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back22% 13 of 59
Holoborodko1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 129 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it70% 80 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKarpenko0wins
AwayHoloborodko1wins
Holoborodko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricKarpenkoHoloborodkoK − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match19.033.0−14.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpenkoHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 672 vs 311 / 58852.4%52.9%352 / 672 vs 311 / 588Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoKarpenko 3.25/Holoborodko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LDec 12 · 10:05O. Karpenko—6670Y. Holoborodko—1111113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113LSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851WSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113WSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
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