TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060577
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleh Karpenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611911––––
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Karpenko above · Oleksandr Zhyrnov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 57 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zhyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Karpenko 1638 vs Zhyrnov 1708
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpenko 0% vs Zhyrnov 100%
Zhyrnov
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpenko 40% vs Zhyrnov 90%
Zhyrnov
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpenko -5 · Zhyrnov +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Zhyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhyrnov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpenko 2.63 / Zhyrnov 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13060577
Karpenko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 85 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back31% 28 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back22% 13 of 59
Zhyrnov1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 110 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it93% 54 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it84% 81 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpenkoZhyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 673 vs 373 / 75452.3%49.5%352 / 673 vs 373 / 754Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovKarpenko 2.63/Zhyrnov 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zhyrnov won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113LSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292
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