TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060637
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleh Karpenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911811––––
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Karpenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Karpenko above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 61 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Oleh Karpenko at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:04What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Habrelyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Karpenko 1686 vs Habrelyan 1509
Karpenko
Wrong
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpenko 40% vs Habrelyan 80%
Habrelyan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpenko 70% vs Habrelyan 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpenko -2 · Habrelyan +4
Habrelyan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Habrelyan) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpenko 2.00 / Habrelyan 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Habrelyan)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13060637
Karpenko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 85 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back31% 28 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back22% 13 of 59
Habrelyan1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 16 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpenkoHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 675 vs 189 / 40452.4%46.8%354 / 675 vs 189 / 404Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HabrelyanKarpenko 2.00/Habrelyan 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Habrelyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Habrelyan won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113WAug 28 · 11:00D. Habrelyan1.301111113A. Troyan3.409890
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