TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067443
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111210171915131311
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:59 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 17-19
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 126 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 66.9%
126 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 44–23 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 23 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:59What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zhyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-23 in 67
Zhyrnov
Correct
gap of 21 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1704 vs Habrelyan 1567
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 80% vs Habrelyan 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 80% vs Habrelyan 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov -1 · Habrelyan +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Zhyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 1.44 / Habrelyan 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067443
Zhyrnov1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 113 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it93% 56 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it84% 84 of 100
Habrelyan2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 28 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov6wins
AwayHabrelyan4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZhyrnov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov71.4%5 of 7
AwayHabrelyan66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov7Habrelyan3n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Zhyrnov6Habrelyan4n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S3Zhyrnov6Habrelyan4n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Zhyrnov5Habrelyan2n = 7Zhyrnov took 5 of 7
S5Zhyrnov1Habrelyan3n = 4Habrelyan took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovHabrelyanZ − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.638.0+4.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 756 vs 193 / 40949.5%47.2%374 / 756 vs 193 / 409Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovZhyrnov 1.44/Habrelyan 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov—115314112D. Habrelyan—3111112133
WAug 26 · 16:29O. Zhyrnov—1111133D. Habrelyan—53110
WAug 26 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov—111012113D. Habrelyan—9121091
WAug 16 · 08:00O. Zhyrnov—1151011113D. Habrelyan—71112562
LJul 29 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov—8111291D. Habrelyan—11614113
WJul 11 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov—1111113D. Habrelyan—5490
LJul 8 · 16:10O. Zhyrnov—1191013112D. Habrelyan—8111211133
WJun 28 · 10:00O. Zhyrnov—111114113D. Habrelyan—1351291
WJun 14 · 08:00O. Zhyrnov—1111113D. Habrelyan—6980
LJun 13 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov—311119142D. Habrelyan—119611163
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113WSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113WAug 28 · 11:00D. Habrelyan1.301111113A. Troyan3.409890
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