TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060786
Played Sep 2Finished
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181012611115811
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Tiutiunnyk above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 59.3%
93 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tiutiunnyk 36–19 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 19 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-19 in 55
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
gap of 17 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tiutiunnyk 1559 vs Habrelyan 1540
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tiutiunnyk 80% vs Habrelyan 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tiutiunnyk 50% vs Habrelyan 70%
Habrelyan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tiutiunnyk -1 · Habrelyan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tiutiunnyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTiutiunnyk 1.61 / Habrelyan 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13060786
Tiutiunnyk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 58 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it83% 38 of 46
Habrelyan2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 26 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTiutiunnyk8wins
AwayHabrelyan2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTiutiunnyk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTiutiunnyk100%5 of 5
AwayHabrelyan40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tiutiunnyk5Habrelyan5n = 10split evenly
S2Tiutiunnyk8Habrelyan2n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 8 of 10
S3Tiutiunnyk5Habrelyan5n = 10split evenly
S4Tiutiunnyk6Habrelyan1n = 7Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 7
S5Tiutiunnyk3Habrelyan1n = 4Tiutiunnyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTiutiunnykHabrelyanT − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.234.7+7.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTiutiunnykHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 367 vs 191 / 40747.1%46.9%173 / 367 vs 191 / 407Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykTiutiunnyk 1.61/Habrelyan 2.20
Miss
What we said
59.3%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 1 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk—711811162D. Habrelyan—118118183
WJun 18 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk—691111113D. Habrelyan—11116872
WJun 13 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk—12139113D. Habrelyan—10111121
WMar 29 · 10:30M. Tiutiunnyk—14118113D. Habrelyan—1271141
WMar 28 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk—591113113D. Habrelyan—111131182
LFeb 15 · 07:30M. Tiutiunnyk—813691D. Habrelyan—111111113
WFeb 14 · 18:10M. Tiutiunnyk—1311113D. Habrelyan—11930
WFeb 8 · 06:00M. Tiutiunnyk—1111123D. Habrelyan—17100
WFeb 7 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk—611611113D. Habrelyan—11211432
WJan 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk—1111113D. Habrelyan—9290
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113LSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WSep 2 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko1.731169101M. Tiutiunnyk2.0091111123LSep 2 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.203870WSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113WSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113WSep 1 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731511711133R. Sopivnyk2.00176116112
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113WSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113WAug 28 · 11:00D. Habrelyan1.301111113A. Troyan3.409890
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