TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061401
Played Sep 2Finished
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1196119111012––
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYevhenii Holoborodko above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 54.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Holoborodko 20–10 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Maksym Tiutiunnyk has won 10 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holoborodko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-10 in 30
Holoborodko
Wrong
gap of 10 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holoborodko 1622 vs Tiutiunnyk 1547
Holoborodko
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holoborodko 40% vs Tiutiunnyk 60%
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holoborodko 50% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holoborodko -1 · Tiutiunnyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Holoborodko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoloborodko 1.73 / Tiutiunnyk 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Holoborodko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13061401
Holoborodko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 129 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it70% 80 of 115
Tiutiunnyk2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoloborodko5wins
AwayTiutiunnyk5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoloborodkon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayTiutiunnyk50%5 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holoborodko0Tiutiunnyk10n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 10 of 10
S2Holoborodko7Tiutiunnyk3n = 10Holoborodko took 7 of 10
S3Holoborodko5Tiutiunnyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Holoborodko5Tiutiunnyk3n = 8Holoborodko took 5 of 8
S5Holoborodko3Tiutiunnyk2n = 5Holoborodko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoloborodkoTiutiunnykH − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match38.543.8−5.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoloborodkoTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime312 / 590 vs 173 / 36852.9%47%312 / 590 vs 173 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoHoloborodko 1.73/Tiutiunnyk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 14:10Y. Holoborodko—1113712113M. Tiutiunnyk—1311111092
LAug 6 · 15:40Y. Holoborodko—61311662M. Tiutiunnyk—1111511113
WAug 2 · 10:35Y. Holoborodko—8111114113M. Tiutiunnyk—11891652
WAug 1 · 11:10Y. Holoborodko—441411123M. Tiutiunnyk—1111129102
LJul 16 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko—711861M. Tiutiunnyk—11711113
LJul 2 · 14:40Y. Holoborodko—311111182M. Tiutiunnyk—119137113
WJun 25 · 15:40Y. Holoborodko—51213113M. Tiutiunnyk—11101191
LJun 20 · 11:40Y. Holoborodko—3270M. Tiutiunnyk—1111113
LJun 18 · 14:10Y. Holoborodko—9910M. Tiutiunnyk—1111113
WJun 13 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko—81111113M. Tiutiunnyk—118881
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851WSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113LSep 5 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.509760
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113LSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123LSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.203870WSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113WSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113WSep 1 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731511711133R. Sopivnyk2.00176116112
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